KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Contents i
Annexes v
List of Tables vii
List of Figures ix
Acronyms xii
Executive Summary E-1

1 Introduction 1-1
1.1 Background 1-1
1.2 Sri Lanka’s Economy 1-3
1.2.1 Electricity and Economy 1-4
1.2.2 Economic Projections 1-4
1.3 Sri Lanka’s Energy Sector 1-5
1.3.1 Energy Supply 1-5
1.3.2 Energy Demand 1-7
1.4 Electricity Sector 1-9
1.4.1 Global Electricity Sector 1-9
1.4.2 Local Electricity Sector 1-11
1.5 Emissions1-19
1.6 Implementation of the Expansion Plan1-21
1.7 Structure of the Report1-22

The Existing and Committed Generating Plants 2-1
2.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Generation 2-1
2.1.1 Hydro and Other Renewable Power Plants owned by CEB 2-1
2.1.2 Other Renewable Power Plants Owned by IPPs 2-5
2.1.3 Summary of Renewable Energy Generation 2-6
2.2 Thermal Generation 2-7
2.2.1 Thermal Plants owned by CEB 2-7
2.2.2 Thermal Plants owned by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) 2-9


3 Electricity Demand: Past and the Forecast 3-1
3.1 Past Demand 3-1
3.2 Policies, Guidelines and Information on Future Major Development Projects in Demand Forecasting 3.3
3.2.1 Policies and Guidelines3-3
3.2.2 Information on Future Major Development Projects Demand Forecasting Methodology3-3
3.3.1 Medium Term Demand Forecast (2023-2026) 3-5
3.3.2 Long Term Demand Forecast (2027-2047) 3-5
3.3.3 Cumulative Electricity Demand Forecast 3-7
3.4 Base Demand Forecast 2023-2047 3-11
3.5 Development of Load Projection Scenario based on MAED Model 3-12
3.6 Demand Forecast Scenarios and Sensitivities 3-15
3.7 Comparison with Past Forecasts 3-16
3.8 Electricity Demand Reduction and Demand Side Management 3-17

4 Thermal Power Generation Options for Future Expansion 4-1
4.1 Thermal Power Candidate Technologies 4-2
4.1.1 Thermal Power Technologies 4-3
4.1.2 Candidate Thermal Power Plant Specifications 4-3
4.2 Fuel Types and Fuel Prices Considered for Analysis 4-4
4.2.1 Liquid Petroleum Products 4-4
4.2.2 Coal 4-6
4.2.3 Natural Gas 4-7
4.2.4 Liquefied Petroleum Gas 4-9
4.2.5 Hydrogen 4-9
4.2.6 Nuclear 4-9
4.3 Thermal Plant Specific Cost Comparison 4-11
4.4 Current Status of Non Committed Thermal Projects 4-12
4.4.1 Coal Power Projects 4-12
4.4.2 Natural Gas Power Plants in the West Coast-Kerawalapitiya 4-12
4.5 India-Sri Lanka Electricity Grid Interconnection 4-12

5 Renewable Generation Options for Future Expansion 5-1
5.1 Introduction 5-1
5.2 Major Hydro Development 5-2
5.2.1 Available Studies on Hydro Projects 5-2
5.2.2 Committed Hydro Power Projects 5-3
5.2.3 Candidate Hydro Power Projects 5-4
5.2.4 Capability of Hydro Power Plants 5-5
5.3 Hydro Power Capacity Extensions 5-6
5.3.1 Mahaweli Complex 5-6
5.3.2 Samanala Complex 5-7
5.3.3 Laxapana Complex 5-8
5.4 Other Renewable Energy Development 5-8
5.4.1 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Study 2023 - 2032 5-10
5.4.2 Wind Resource Development 5-13
5.4.3 Solar Power Development 5-14
5.4.4 Mini-hydro Development 5-17
5.4.5 Biomass Power Development 5-17
5.4.6 Municipal Solid Waste Based Power Generation 5-18
5.4.7 Other Forms of Renewable Energy Technologies 5-18
5.5 Development of Grid Scale Energy Storages 5-18
5.5.1 Grid Scale Battery Energy Storage Development 5-19
5.5.2 Pumped Storage Hydro Power Development 5-19

6 Generation Expansion Planning Methodology and Parameters 6-1
6.1 Generation Planning Code 6-1
6.2 National Energy Policy and Strategies 6-1
6.2.1 Assuring Energy Security 6-2
6.2.2 Enhancing Self Reliance 6-3
6.2.3 Caring for the Environment 6-3
6.2.4 Enhancing the Share of Renewable Energy 6-3
6.2.5 Securing Land for Future Energy Infrastructure 6-3
6.3 General Policy Guidelines on the Electricity Industry for the PUCSL 6-4
6.4 Thermal Power Plant Specific Cost Calculation 6-5
6.5 Planning Software Tools 6-5
6.5.1 Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) 6-5
6.5.2 OPTGEN Software 6-6
6.5.3 MAED Model 6-6
6.6 Modelling of Hydro Power Development 6-7
6.7 Modeling of Other Renewable Energy 6-7
6.8 Modeling of Energy Storage Systems 6-7
6.9 Assessment of System Operational Capability 6-8
6.10 Assessment of Environmental Implications 6-8
6.11 Assessment of Implementation Time and Financial Scheduling 6-8
6.12 Study Parameters 6-9
6.12.1 Study Period 6-9
6.12.2 Economic Ground Rules 6-9
6.12.3 Plant Commissioning and retirements 6-10
6.12.4 Cost of Energy Not Served (ENS) 6-10
6.12.5 Reliability Criteria 6-10
6.12.6 Discount Rate 6-11
6.12.7 Plant Capital Cost Distribution among Construction Years 6-11
6.12.8 Assumptions and Constraints Applied 6-11

7 Generation Expansion Planning Study Development of the Reference Case 7-1
7.1 Introduction 7-1
7.2 Reference Case Plan 7-2
7.2.1 System Capacity Distribution 7-5
7.2.2 System Energy Share 7-6
7.2.3 Cost Comparison with Base Case 7-7

8 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study– Base Case Plan 8-1
8.1 Government Policy on Composition of Electricity Generation 8-1
8.2 Base Case Plan 8-3
8.2.1 System Capacity Distribution 8-10
8.2.2 System Energy Share 8-14
8.2.3 Fuel, Operation and Maintenance Cost 8-16
8.2.4 Reserve Margin and LOLP 8-18
8.3 Impact of Demand Variation on Base Case Plan 8-19
8.4 Impact of Discount Rate Variation on Base Case Plan 8-20
8.5 Impact of Delayed Implementation of VRE and Storage Projects on Base Case Plan8-21
8.6 Impact of Fuel Price Variations on Base Case Plan 8-21
8.7 Impact of SNSP Limit Variations on Base Case Plan 8-21
8.8 Summary 8-22

9 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study – Operational Analysis of the Base Case Plan9-1
9.1 Background 9-1
9.2 Non-Synchronous Generation Penetration Limits 9-3
9.3 Dispatch Patterns in weekly load curve 9-5
9.3.1 Dry Season Dispatch Pattern 9-5
9.3.2 High Wind Season Dispatch Pattern 9-6
9.3.3 Wet Season Dispatch Pattern 9-7
9.4 Renewable Energy Curtailments 9-8
9.5 Thermal Power Plant Operations 9-11
9.6 Operation of Energy Storage 9-12
9.7 Ramping Requirements 9-13
9.8 Summary of Operational Planning Results 9-14
9.9 Power System Stability 9-17

10 Results of Generation Expansion Planning Study–Scenario Analysis 10-1
10.1 Policy Constrained Scenarios 10-1
10.1.1 Scenario 1: 70% RE Scenario 10-1
10.1.2 Scenario 2: Beyond 70% RE Scenario 10-2
10.1.3 Scenario 3: HVDC Interconnection Scenario 10-4
10.1.4 Scenario 4: Nuclear Power Scenario 10-6
10.2 Policy Unconstrained Scenarios 10-8
10.2.1 Scenario 5: 50% RE Scenario 10-8
10.2.2 Scenario 6: 60% RE Scenario 10-9
10.2.3 Scenario 7: 60% RE Scenario without Coal Power 10-9
10.3 Scenario Sensitivities 10-10
10.3.1 Comparison with Base Case and Impact of Fuel Price Sensitivity 10-10
10.3.2 Impact of Cost Projection Sensitivity on Scenarios 10-11
10.4 Comparison of Future Energy Supply Alternatives 10-13
10.4.1 Global Context 10-13
10.4.2 Sri Lankan Context 10-14

11 Environmental Implications 11-1
11.1 Climate Change 11-1
11.1.1 Greenhouse Gases 11-1
11.1.2 GHG Emission Reduction Protocols 11-2
11.1.3 Climate Finance 11-4
11.2 Country Context 11-5
11.2.1 Overview of Emissions in Sri Lanka 11-5
11.2.2 Role of Sri Lanka on Climate Change Mitigation 11-6
11.2.3 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of Sri Lanka 11-9
11.2.4 Ambient Air Quality & Stack Emission Standards 11-11
11.3 Emission Factors 11-13
11.3.1 Uncontrolled Emission Factors 11-13
11.3.2 Emission Control Technologies 11-14
11.3.3 Emission Factors Used 11-15
11.4 Environmental Implications – Base Case 11-16
11.5 Environmental Implications – Other Scenarios 11-19
11.5.1 Comparison of Emissions 11-19
11.5.2 Cost Impacts of CO2 Emission Reduction 11-22
11.6 Externalities 11-23
11.6.1 Local Environmental Damage Issues 11-24
11.6.2 Global Damage Issues of GHG Emissions 11-25
11.7 Pathway to Carbon Neutrality 11-25

12 Recommendations of the Base Case Plan 12-1
12.1 Introduction 12-1
12.2 Recommendations for the Base Case Plan 12-1
13 Implementation and Investment of Generation Projects 13-1
13.1 Present Status of Power Plants in the Base Case Plan 13-1
13.1.1 Present Status of the Committed Plants 13-1
13.1.2 Present Status of the Candidate Power Plants 13-2
13.2 Power Plants Identified in the Base Case Plan from 2023 to 2032 13-4
13.2.1 Renewable Energy Power Plants 13-4
13.2.2 Thermal Power Plants 13-4
13.2.3 Energy Storage Power Plants 13-5
13.3 Implementation Schedule 13-5
13.4 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2023 – 2042 and Financial Options 13-8
13.4.1 Investment Plan for Base Case Plan 2023 – 2042 13-8
13.4.2 Financial Options 13-9
14 Contingency Analysis 14-1
14.1 Risk Events 14-1
14.1.1 Variation in Hydrology 14-1
14.1.2 Variation in Demand 14-1
14.1.3 Delays in Implementing Power Plants 14-2
14.1.4 Long Period Outage of a Major Power Plant 14-3
14.1.5 Restriction of Fuel Supply 14-3
14.2 Evaluation of Contingencies 14-4
14.2.1 Single Occurrence of Risk Events 14-5
14.2.2 Simultaneous Occurrence of Several Risk Events 14-6
14.3 Conclusion 14-9
15 Revision to Previous Plan 15-1
15.1 Government Policies 15-1
15.2 Demand Forecast 15-1
15.3 Fuel Prices used for Planning Studies 15-3
15.4 Integration of Other Renewable Energy Sources 15-3
15.5 Introduction of Battery Storage 15-4
15.6 Capacity Share and Energy Share 15-4
15.7 Environmental Emissions 15-6
15.8 Overall Comparison 15-7
References R1