KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 8

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 13

Did all renewable electricity technologies break deployment records in 2022? ............. 16
Solar PV was the only technology to break a record for annual capacity additions ................ 16
Wind power capacity additions decreased the past two consecutive years ............................ 17
Will renewable electricity capacity additions continue to break new records in 2023 and
2024? ..................................................................................................................................... 18
2023: Solar PV dominates growth, and onshore wind additions rebound to break the 2020
record ....................................................................................................................................... 18
2024: Another record year for global capacity additions, led by solar PV ............................... 19
How will the energy crisis affect EU renewable energy deployment in 2023 and 2024? 21
Rapid distributed solar PV growth is the main reason for the upwards forecast revision ........ 21
Permitting challenges and limited participation in competitive auctions prevent faster growth of
utility-scale wind and solar PV ................................................................................................. 23
How are European countries addressing permitting challenges to accelerate renewable
energy development? ........................................................................................................... 24
Permitting has finally become a key policy focus in Europe .................................................... 24
How much less money is the European Union spending on expensive electricity thanks
to additional renewable energy capacity? .......................................................................... 28
Reduced Russian natural gas supplies and multi-year lows in hydro and nuclear output led to
an unparalleled increase in the EU wholesale electricity spot price ........................................ 29
New PV and wind capacity is expected to provide savings of EUR 100 billion since the
beginning of the energy crisis .................................................................................................. 30
Will hydropower in Europe recover in 2023 following a severe drought last year? ....... 32
To what extent can renewable energy use displace gas consumption in EU buildings in
2023 and 2024? ..................................................................................................................... 34
Will China’s role in global renewable energy deployment decline in 2023 and 2024? ... 37
China’s contribution to global renewable capacity additions is expected to increase in 2023
and 2024 thanks to distributed solar PV and wind ................................................................... 37
China’s increasing solar PV and wind manufacturing capabilities will maintain a strong
domestic demand ..................................................................................................................... 38
Will the US inflation Reduction Act impact wind and PV deployment in the short term?
................................................................................................................................................ 40
Trade and supply chain concerns led to lower capacity additions in 2022, but wind and PV
expansion will accelerate this year........................................................................................... 40
The Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on renewable energy technology deployment will become
evident in 2025 ......................................................................................................................... 41
Will India’s renewable energy deployment boom in 2023 and 2024? .............................. 42
Higher prices, lower auction volumes and trade policies weigh on short-term PV deployment
.................................................................................................................................................. 42
Large-scale PV manufacturing is emerging, but it creates short-term demand and supply
mismatches .............................................................................................................................. 43
Are competitive renewable energy auctions increasingly undersubscribed? ................ 45
The energy crisis has negatively affected participation in European auctions ........................ 45
Will market forces now drive the expansion of wind and solar PV plants, or is policy
still key? ................................................................................................................................ 48
Economic attractiveness and consumer demand drive PPA growth in the United States ....... 49
Competitive auctions drive European growth in 2023-2024, but the pace will depend on policy
responses to volatile wholesale prices and rising costs .......................................................... 50
Is the renewable energy industry’s financial health improving? ...................................... 53
Multiple challenges have tested the financial health of renewable energy companies since
2019 ......................................................................................................................................... 53
A bright future for the financial health of the renewable energy industry is on the horizon, but it
requires governments and the industry to tackle multiple challenges ..................................... 55
Will solar PV and wind costs finally begin to fall again in 2023 and 2024? ..................... 57
Do higher shares of wind and solar PV generation always imply more curtailment? .... 60
The importance of grid infrastructure ....................................................................................... 61
Policy and system planning ...................................................................................................... 62
Market design and operation .................................................................................................... 62
How are higher shares of wind and solar PV challenging power systems? ................... 64
Will global solar PV and wind technology manufacturing capacity be adequate to meet
Net Zero demand in 2030? ................................................................................................... 66
With PV manufacturing capacity to more than double by 2024, the industry is rushing
headlong into a supply glut ...................................................................................................... 66
Announced new PV manufacturing in India, the United States and Europe reaches 30 GW for
polysilicon and 100 GW for module assembly, with signs of diversification emerging ............ 66
China leads sluggish growth in wind equipment manufacturing as Western equipment
suppliers struggle financially .................................................................................................... 68
Where were governments able to rely on biofuels to secure energy supplies during the
2022 energy crisis? .............................................................................................................. 70
Some markets increased biofuel production to mitigate high prices and address supply
concerns… ............................................................................................................................... 71
… but overall biofuel demand growth declined by 40% during the energy crisis .................... 71
Will energy security concerns drive biofuel growth in 2023-2024? ................................. 73
Emerging markets to lead growth in 2023-2024 ...................................................................... 73
Renewable diesel growth remains strong in advanced economies, but overall biofuel demand
expansion will not accelerate by 2024 ..................................................................................... 74
Will we see lower biofuel prices in 2023-2024?.................................................................. 77
Advanced biofuel imports drive down biodiesel costs in Europe ............................................. 78
Renewable diesel growth supports higher vegetable oil prices in the United States .............. 78
High Brazilian sugar and soybean production supports domestic and international demand
increases .................................................................................................................................. 79
What are governments and companies doing to avoid a supply crunch, and is it
enough? ................................................................................................................................ 81
The feedstock supply crunch ................................................................................................... 81
Government policies and market reactions are encouraging the largest-ever expansion in new
biofuel technologies ................................................................................................................. 82
More efforts are needed to expand feedstock supplies ........................................................... 83
General annex ....................................................................................................................... 84
Abbreviations and acronyms .................................................................................................... 84
Units of measure ...................................................................................................................... 85