KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

겨울을 대비하기 위한 유럽의 가스 밸런스 및 글로벌 에너지 및 기후 모델에 대한 내용을 담은 보고서가 IEA에 발간되었습니다.

제목: Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter: Europe’s Gas Balance for 2023-2024

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

As winter approaches, a combination of favourable LNG market dynamics, robust pipeline deliveries from non-Russian suppliers, lower demand, and policy actions has given Europe a chance to sidestep some of the worst immediate impacts of Russia’s steep cuts to natural gas deliveries

Mild weather, healthy storage levels and strong LNG supply have led to a significant fall in some natural gas price markers

The temporary comfort provided by today’s market conditions should not lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the future: a cold spell could quickly change sentiment and Europe’s gas balance faces even tougher tests in 2023

Some of the factors that helped Europe in 2022 are unlikely to be as favourable in 2023: in particular, Russian deliveries are likely to be considerably lower and competition from China for available LNG cargoes considerably higher

Europe could face a 30 bcm shortfall in the gas it needs to fuel its economy and sufficiently refill storage sites during the summer of 2023, jeopardising its preparations for the winter of 2023-24

An even faster deployment of renewables, heat pumps and energy efficiency measures can mitigate the risks of a worsening energy and gas crisis