1. Introduction 1
2. Derivation of the Emissions Impacts of Supply-side Interventions 5
2.1. Substitution to Other Forms of Energy 10
2.2. When Could Leakage Be Zero? The Case of Hotelling Dynamics 11
3. Estimating Market Leakage 12
3.1. General Principles for Estimating Leakage Parameters 12
3.2. Estimates of Demand Elasticities 16
3.3. Estimates of Supply Elasticities 18
4. Estimates of Emissions Intensities 19
5. Quantitative Application 23
6. Conclusion 31
7. References 32
Appendix 36
A.1. Sensitivity Approach to Emissions Intensity Calculation 36
A.2. Detailed Results under a 20-Year GWP 39
A.3. The Effect of Dynamics 41