KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Acknowledgements .................................... v

Foreword: ESCAP .......................... vi

Foreword: Mongolia .......................... vii

Abbreviations and acronyms ............................. viii

Executive Summary ................................................... ix
 A. Highlights of the Road Map ....................................................................................................................... ix
 B. Achieving Mongolia’s SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030 ........................................................................... x
 C. Increasing ambition beyond SDG 7  .......................................................................................................... xii
 D. Important policy directions ....................................................................................................................... xiii

1. Introduction ........................................ 1
 1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................................ 2
 1.2. SDG 7 targets and indicators .................................................................................................................... 2
 1.3. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) .......................................................................................... 3
 1.4. NEXSTEP methodology ............................................................................................................................. 3
  1.4.1. Energy and emissions modelling   .............................................................................................................. 3
  1.4.2. Economic analysis..................................................................................................................................... 3
  1.4.3. Scenario analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 4
 1.5. Data sources .............................................................................................................................................. 4

2. Country overview ..................................... 5
 2.1. Demographic and macroeconomic profile ............................................................................................... 6
 2.2. Energy sector overview .............................................................................................................................. 6
  2.2.1. National energy profile in the baseline year 2021 ........................................................................................ 6
  2.2.2. Status of SDG 7 targets in the base year 2021 ............................................................................................. 8
  2.2.3. National energy policies, plans, strategies and institutions .......................................................................... 9
  2.2.4. National energy resources and potentials ...................................................................................................11

3. Modelling assumptions ............................. 13
 3.1. Scenario definitions ...................................................................................................................................15
  3.1.1. Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario ..............................................................................................................15
  3.1.2. Current policy scenario (CPS) ....................................................................................................................15
  3.1.3. SDG scenario  ...........................................................................................................................................15
  3.1.4. Sustainable Heating by 2030 scenario ........................................................................................................15
  3.1.5. Towards Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario ...........................................................................................15
 3.2. Assumptions ..............................................................................................................................................15

4. Energy transition outlook in the current policy scenario ............................. 17
 4.1. Energy demand  ..........................................................................................................................................18
  4.1.1. Industry sector  .........................................................................................................................................18
  4.1.2. Transport sector ........................................................................................................................................19
  4.1.3. Residential sector......................................................................................................................................19
  4.1.4. Commercial and agriculture sector .............................................................................................................19
 4.2. Energy supply outlook ................................................................................................................................ 20
 4.3. GHG emissions  .......................................................................................................................................... 21

5. SDG scenario: An assessment of SDG 7 targets and indicators ...................... 23
 5.1. Energy demand outlook ............................................................................................................................. 24
 5.2. SDG 7 targets ............................................................................................................................................. 24
  5.2.1. Access to electricity .................................................................................................................................. 24
  5.2.2. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking .................................................................................... 25
  5.2.3. Renewable energy ..................................................................................................................................... 27
  5.2.4. Energy efficiency ....................................................................................................................................... 28
  5.2.5. Industry sector .......................................................................................................................................... 28
  5.2.6. Transport sector  ....................................................................................................................................... 30
  5.2.7. Residential sector  ..................................................................................................................................... 31
  5.2.8. Commercial sector  ................................................................................................................................... 33
 5.3. Energy Supply Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 34
 5.4. Nationally Determined Contribution Targets ............................................................................................ 35

6. Going beyond SDG 7 with ambitious scenarios ............................... 37
 6.1. Sustainable heating scenario (SHS) by 2030 ........................................................................................... 38
 6.2. Towards Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario ...................................................................................... 39

7. Economic analysis and financing options ................... 43

8. Policy recommendations .................................. 49
 8.1. Scenario evaluation .................................................................................................................................... 51
 8.2. Revisiting existing policies ........................................................................................................................ 52
 8.3. Policy recommendations ........................................................................................................................... 54
  8.3.1. Promote electric cook stoves to provide a sustainable solution to achieving universal access with multifold benefits .......... 54
  8.3.2. Adopt a multi-sectoral approach to raise energy efficiency strategies by 2030 to align with the global improvement target ............ 54
  8.3.3. Fuel switching strategies, including electrification, accelerate	SDG 7 progress and provide multi-fold benefits in the long run ....... 54
  8.3.4. Decarbonize the power and heating sector by investing in renewable energy to help achieve the net zero emissions target ........ 54
  8.3.5. Develop green financing policies ............................................................................................................... 55
 8.4. Building back better in the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic ....................................................... 55
  8.4.1. Accelerating access to	clean and modern energy services...........................................................................56
  8.4.2. Savings from the energy sector will	help to build other sectors .................................................................... 57
  8.4.3. Long-term recovery planning to build back better while ensuring sustainable growth .................................... 57
  8.4.4. COVID-19	recovery options for Mongolia .................................................................................................... 58

9. Conclusion and the way forward ........................ 59

Annexes ............................... 61
 I. National Expert SDG 7 tool for energy planning methodology................................................................ 61
 II. Key assumptions for NEXSTEP energy modelling ................................................................................... 62
 III. Power technologies cost and key assumptions ...................................................................................... 66
 IV. Economic analysis data for clean cooking technologies ........................................................................ 67
 V. Summary results for the scenarios  .......................................................................................................... 67

References ......................... 68