KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Foreword ................................................................................................................................. 3 

Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 5 

Executive summary ............................................................................................................... 11 

1 Status of battery demand and supply........................................................... 17 
 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 18 
  1.1.1 Batteries and secure energy transitions ............................................ 18 
  1.1.2 Battery use in the energy sector........................................................ 20 
  1.1.3 Recent developments in battery costs .............................................. 21 
 1.2 Battery use in electric vehicles ...................................................................... 22 
  1.2.1 Leading EV markets ........................................................................... 23 
  1.2.2 EV battery chemistry ......................................................................... 25 
  1.2.3 Navigating bottlenecks: Policy and infrastructure challenges ........... 28 
  1.2.4 Policy support for EV batteries .......................................................... 29 
  1.2.5 Opportunities related to the expanding battery market ................... 31 
 1.3 Battery use in the power sector .................................................................... 32 
  1.3.1 Batteries have multiple roles in power systems ................................ 35 
  1.3.2 Batteries facilitate access to electricity ............................................. 42 
  1.3.3 Battery chemistry for storage applications ....................................... 45 
  1.3.4 Policy support for battery storage ..................................................... 47 
  1.3.5 Regulatory barriers to battery storage .............................................. 51 
 1.4 Investment in batteries ................................................................................. 53 
  1.4.1 Investment by sector and location .................................................... 53 
  1.4.2 Venture capital investment in battery start-ups ............................... 55 
 1.5 Global battery supply chain ........................................................................... 57 
  1.5.1 Lithium-ion battery manufacturing ................................................... 60 
  1.5.2 Critical minerals in batteries .............................................................. 61 
  1.5.3 Risks in the critical minerals supply chain and price volatility ........... 63 
  1.5.4 Direct investment in critical minerals by battery and EV producers . 64 

2. Outlook for battery demand and supply 67 
 2.1 COP28 commitments and the role of batteries ............................................. 68 
 2.2 Outlook for EV batteries ................................................................................ 73 
  2.2.1 Regional outlook for EV batteries ...................................................... 76 
  2.2.2 What type of batteries will power future EV fleets? ......................... 77
  2.2.3 Innovation in battery technology beyond 2030 ................................ 80 
  2.2.4 Evolving relationship between EVs and electricity networks ............ 82 
 2.3 Outlook for battery storage in the power sector .......................................... 86 
  2.3.1 Regional outlook for battery storage................................................. 87 
  2.3.2 The evolution of the chemistry mix ................................................... 91 
  2.3.3 Role of battery storage ...................................................................... 92 
  2.3.4 Costs and competitiveness of utility-scale battery storage ............... 98 
  2.3.5 Behind-the-meter battery storage .................................................. 103 
  2.3.6 Battery storage to achieve universal access to electricity ............... 106 
 2.4 Investment outlook for batteries ................................................................ 110 
  2.4.1 Global and regional investment outlook ......................................... 110 
  2.4.2 Risks to scaling batteries investment .............................................. 111 
 2.5 Battery supply chain .................................................................................... 112 
  2.5.1 Future plans for battery manufacturing .......................................... 112 
  2.5.2 Rising demand of critical minerals for batteries .............................. 116 

3 Policy implications and recommendations 121 
 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 122 
 3.2 Electric vehicles ........................................................................................... 123 
  3.2.1 Expanding EV adoption beyond key markets .................................. 123 
  3.2.2 Impact of average battery pack size on future demand .................. 124 
  3.2.3 Electric vehicles and power systems ............................................... 125 
 3.3 Power .......................................................................................................... 126 
  3.3.1 Risks of delayed battery storage expansion .................................... 126 
  3.3.2 Utility-scale battery storage ............................................................ 130 
  3.3.3 Behind-the-meter battery storage .................................................. 132 
  3.3.4 Energy access ................................................................................... 132 
 3.4 Investment in batteries ............................................................................... 133 
 3.5 Manufacturing and supply chains ............................................................... 134 
  3.5.1 Developing resilient, sustainable and affordable supply chains ...... 134 
  3.5.2 Ensuring secure, reliable and resilient critical minerals supplies .... 135 

Annexes  
 Annex A. Definitions ............................................................................................................ 141 
 Annex B. References ........................................................................................................... 153