KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

About the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change ................................................. 4 

Summary and recommendations ........................................................................................................ 5 

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 9 
 1.1. Context and aim ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 
 1.2. Analytical approach ............................................................................................................................................... 10 
 1.3. Overview of the draft joint scenarios .............................................................................................................. 12 

2. Consistency with the European Union’s climate and energy goals ....................................... 13 
 2.1. Alignment with the updated national energy and climate plans ........................................................ 14 
 2.2. Energy use and energy efficiency .................................................................................................................... 14 
 2.3. Installed capacities and hydrogen demand ................................................................................................. 18 
 2.4. Carbon capture and the greenhouse gas budget ..................................................................................... 21 

3. Soundness of the assumptions ................................................................................................. 24 
 3.1. Cost of hydrogen .................................................................................................................................................... 24 
 3.2. Cost of renewable energy technologies ........................................................................................................ 24 
 3.3. Cost of carbon dioxide ......................................................................................................................................... 25 
 3.4. Cost of carbon capture and storage ............................................................................................................... 25 
 3.5. Coverage of carbon capture and storage on existing installations .................................................... 25 
 3.6. Methane blend ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 
 3.7. Methane and hydrogen demand in the residential and tertiary sectors.......................................... 26 

4. Contrasting range of pathways and integrated building blocks ........................................... 27 
 4.1. Range of pathways................................................................................................................................................. 27 
 4.2. Building blocks ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 

5. Incorporation of projected climate impacts ............................................................................ 29 

6. Quality of the scenario-building process ................................................................................. 30 

Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 32 

Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................................... 34 

Annex: data and calculations {Excel} ................................................................................................. 35