KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Section 1:  Overview of model and scenarios .......................................................................................................... 5 
 1.1 GEC Model scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 6 
 1.2 Selected developments in 2024 ........................................................................................................ 9 
 1.3 GEC Model overview ....................................................................................................................... 12 

Section 2:  Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions ................................................................................................. 17 
 2.1 Population assumptions .................................................................................................................. 17 
 2.2 Macroeconomic assumptions .......................................................................................................... 18 
 2.3 Prices ............................................................................................................................................... 19 
 2.4 Policies ............................................................................................................................................. 22 
 2.5 Techno-economic inputs ................................................................................................................. 23 

Section 3:  End-use sectors .................................................................................................................................... 25 
 3.1 Industry ............................................................................................................................................ 25 
 3.2 Transport ......................................................................................................................................... 31 
 3.3 Buildings .......................................................................................................................................... 41 
 3.4 Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response ................................................................... 44 

Section 4:  Electricity generation and heat production.......................................................................................... 49 
 4.1 Electricity generation ....................................................................................................................... 49 
 4.2 Value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity .................................................................................... 54 
 4.3 Electricity transmission and distribution networks ......................................................................... 57 
 4.4 Hourly models ................................................................................................................................. 61 
 4.5 Mini- and off-grid power systems ................................................................................................... 63 
 4.6 Renewables and combined heat and power modules .................................................................... 63 
 4.7 Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation ........................................................................... 65 
 4.8 Battery storage ................................................................................................................................ 65 

Section 5:  Other energy transformation ............................................................................................................... 67 
 5.1 Oil refining and trade ....................................................................................................................... 67 
 5.2 Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas ..................................................................................... 68 
 5.3 Hydrogen production and supply .................................................................................................... 68 
 5.4 Biofuel production ........................................................................................................................... 71 

Section 6:  Energy supply ....................................................................................................................................... 75 
 6.1 Oil .................................................................................................................................................... 75 
 6.2 Natural gas ....................................................................................................................................... 79 
 6.3 Coal .................................................................................................................................................. 80 
 6.4 Bioenergy ......................................................................................................................................... 81 

Section 7:  Critical minerals .................................................................................................................................... 85 
 7.1 Demand ........................................................................................................................................... 86 
 7.2 Primary and secondary supply projections ..................................................................................... 86 

Section 8:  Emissions .............................................................................................................................................. 89 
 8.1 CO2 emissions .................................................................................................................................. 89 
 8.2 Methane emissions ......................................................................................................................... 89 
 8.3 Other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions ...................................................................................... 90 
 8.4 Air pollution ..................................................................................................................................... 90 
 8.5 Global temperature impacts ........................................................................................................... 90 
Section 9:  Energy and CO2 decomposition ............................................................................................................ 91 

Section 10:  Investment ......................................................................................................................................... 93 
 10.1 Investment in fuel supply and the power sector ............................................................................. 93 
 10.2 Demand-side investments ............................................................................................................... 95 
 10.3 Financing for investments ............................................................................................................... 96 

Section 11:  Energy access ..................................................................................................................................... 99 
 11.1 Definition of modern energy access ................................................................................................ 99 
 11.2 Outlook for modern energy access ............................................................................................... 100 

Section 12:  Employment ..................................................................................................................................... 101 
 12.1 Definition and scope of employment ............................................................................................ 101 
 12.2 Estimating current employment .................................................................................................... 103 
 12.3 Outlook for employment ............................................................................................................... 104 

Section 13:  Government spending on clean energy and energy affordability .................................................... 105 
 13.1 Policy identification and collection ................................................................................................ 105 
 13.2 Assessing the impact on overall clean energy investment ............................................................ 107 

Section 14:  Household energy expenditures analysis ......................................................................................... 109 
 14.1 Definitions and coverage ............................................................................................................... 109 
 14.2 Input data ...................................................................................................................................... 109 
 14.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 110 
 14.4 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 111 

Annex A:  Terminology ........................................................................................................................................ 113 
 Definitions ................................................................................................................................................. 113 
 Regional and country groupings ............................................................................................................... 121  
 Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................. 124 

Annex B:  References .......................................................................................................................................... 129