KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 3 

Foreword on the Clean Energy Technology Observatory ....................................................................... 4 

Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 5 

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 6 
 1.1 Motivation .................................................................................................................................. 6 
 1.2 The Policy-Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment (POTEnCIA) ...... 7 

2 Model and Scenario Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 9 
 2.1 Key Policies ................................................................................................................................. 9 
 2.2 Key Data Inputs .........................................................................................................................14 
  2.2.1 Techno-economics and technology dynamics ...............................................................14 
  2.2.2 Demographics and Macroeconomics .............................................................................14 
  2.2.3 Fuel prices ......................................................................................................................16 
 2.3 Interlinkages with other models ..............................................................................................17 
 2.4 Drivers of Economic Decisions..................................................................................................19 

3 Trends of the EU Energy System ......................................................................................................22 
 3.1 Emissions and Energy System Overview ..................................................................................22 
 3.2 Carbon values and Energy system costs ...................................................................................25 
 3.3 Energy Demand Sectors............................................................................................................28 
  3.3.1 Industry ..........................................................................................................................29 
   3.3.1.1 Non-metallic Mineral Products ..............................................................................33 
   3.3.1.2 Iron and Steel .........................................................................................................35 
   3.3.1.3 Chemicals ................................................................................................................37 
   3.3.1.4 Non-ferrous Metals ................................................................................................39 
   3.3.1.5 Pulp and Paper........................................................................................................41 
   3.3.1.6 Non-energy-intensive Industries ............................................................................43 
  3.3.2 Transport ........................................................................................................................45 
   3.3.2.1 Passenger Cars ........................................................................................................48 
   3.3.2.2 Buses and Coaches .................................................................................................49 
   3.3.2.3 Powered 2-Wheelers ..............................................................................................50 
   3.3.2.4 Road Freight Transport ...........................................................................................51
   3.3.2.5 Rail and Metro ........................................................................................................54 
   3.3.2.6 Aviation ...................................................................................................................55 
   3.3.2.7 Shipping ..................................................................................................................56 
  3.3.3 Residential and Services sectors ....................................................................................58 
   3.3.3.1 Residential sector ...................................................................................................60 
   3.3.3.2 Services ...................................................................................................................61 
  3.3.4 Agriculture ......................................................................................................................63 
 3.4 Energy Supply ...........................................................................................................................65 
  3.4.1 Electricity ........................................................................................................................65 
  3.4.2 Distributed heat .............................................................................................................70 
  3.4.3 Renewable Fuels ............................................................................................................72 
   3.4.3.1 Green Hydrogen .....................................................................................................72 
   3.4.3.2 Synthetic Fuels ........................................................................................................73 
   3.4.3.3 Liquid Biofuels ........................................................................................................75 
   3.4.3.4 Biogas and biomethane ..........................................................................................78 
   3.4.3.5 Solid Biomass ..........................................................................................................78 
 3.5 Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage .................................................................................80 

4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................82 

References .............................................................................................................................................83 

List of abbreviations and definitions .....................................................................................................87 

List of units ............................................................................................................................................89 

List of figures .........................................................................................................................................90 

List of tables ..........................................................................................................................................94 

Annexes .................................................................................................................................................95 
 Annex 1. Supplementary information. .............................................................................................95