세계에너지시장정보 통합검색
정책동향보고서
| 제목 | 글로벌) 청정 에너지 기술에 대한 향상된 학습이 글로벌 에너지 시스템 시나리오에 미치는 영향: 청정 에너지 기술 시나리오를 위한 에너지 시스템 모델링 | ||
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| 국가 | [글로벌] | 출처 | Publications Office of the European Union |
| 산업구분 | [바이오에너지] [기타] [에너지효율] [스마트그리드] [기타 신재생] [수소연료전지] [태양에너지] [풍력에너지] | 등록일 | 2025.03.28 |
이 보고서는 청정 에너지 기술의 기술 발전 향상이 글로벌 에너지 시스템 및 경제에 미치는 영향을 조사한 보고서이다. 또한, 이 보고서는 두 시나리오에 대한 각 기술 그룹 내의 기술 채택 패턴을 조사하여 비용, 용량 및 생산의 진화 차이를 강조한 보고서이다. 원문 제목 및 목차
제목 :
Impacts of enhanced learning for clean energy technologies on global energy system scenarios: Energy system modelling for clean energy technology scenarios 원문목차 :
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Foreword on the Clean Energy Technology Observatory ............................................................................................................................................. 6
Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
1 Scenarios and Methodology......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
1.1 POLES-JRC model .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
1.2 Base Case Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
1.2.1 Specifications and limitations .................................................................................................................................................................... 17
1.2.2 Global Emissions ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
1.2.3 Energy supply and demand .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
1.2.3.1 Primary energy supply ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
1.2.3.2 Power generation...................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
1.2.3.3 Final energy demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 21
1.2.3.3.1 Transport sector....................................................................................................................................................................... 21
1.2.3.3.2 Residential and services sector ................................................................................................................................. 22
1.2.4 Investments in clean energy technologies..................................................................................................................................... 23
1.2.4.1 Clean power generation ..................................................................................................................................................................... 24
1.2.4.2 Clean fuels and direct air capture (DAC) ............................................................................................................................ 25
1.2.4.3 Transport and buildings ...................................................................................................................................................................... 25
1.3 Methodological approach ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
1.3.1 Endogenous technology learning ............................................................................................................................................................ 27
1.3.1 Estimating R&I expenditures ....................................................................................................................................................................... 29
1.3.2 Enhanced learning variations ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29
2 Analysis by technology group .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
2.1 Wind power technologies .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
2.1.1 Wind power generation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
2.1.2 Technology adoption pattern ...................................................................................................................................................................... 32
2.1.3 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................................................... 35
2.1.4 Research and innovation expenditures ............................................................................................................................................. 35
2.2 Solar power technologies ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
2.2.1 Solar power generation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
2.2.2 Technology adoption pattern ...................................................................................................................................................................... 39
2.2.3 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................................................... 41
2.2.4 Research and innovation expenditures ............................................................................................................................................. 42
2.3 Battery technologies ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
2.3.1 Transport sector ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
2.3.1.1 Technology adoption patterns ...................................................................................................................................................... 45
2.3.1.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates ...................................................................................................................................... 48
2.3.2 Power storage ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
2.3.2.1 Technology adoption patterns ...................................................................................................................................................... 49
2.3.2.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates ...................................................................................................................................... 51
2.4 Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................... 52
2.4.1 Modelling of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies ................................................................................................................. 52
2.4.2 Hydrogen production ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
2.4.2.1 Technologies.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 53
2.4.2.2 Production cost and learning ......................................................................................................................................................... 54
2.4.2.3 Technology adoption patterns ...................................................................................................................................................... 54
2.4.2.4 Impacts of enhanced learning rates ...................................................................................................................................... 57
2.4.3 Hydrogen demand ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
2.4.3.1 Transport sector ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
2.4.3.1.1 Technology adoption pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 60
2.4.3.1.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................... 61
2.4.3.2 Power sector .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 62
2.4.3.2.1 Technology adoption pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 62
2.4.3.2.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................... 63
2.5 Carbon capture in power and hydrogen production ................................................................................................................................ 65
2.5.1 Power generation with CO2 capture ..................................................................................................................................................... 66
2.5.1.1 Power technologies ................................................................................................................................................................................. 66
2.5.1.2 Learning for CO2 capture technologies ................................................................................................................................ 66
2.5.1.3 Technology adoption pattern ........................................................................................................................................................ 68
2.5.1.4 Impacts of enhanced learning rates ...................................................................................................................................... 68
2.5.2 Hydrogen production with CO2 capture ............................................................................................................................................. 70
2.5.2.1 Technology adoption pattern ........................................................................................................................................................ 70
2.5.2.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates ...................................................................................................................................... 71
2.6 Direct air capture and synfuels ................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
2.6.1 Direct air capture .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
2.6.1.1 Technology and modelling ............................................................................................................................................................... 72
2.6.1.2 Adoption patterns and learning .................................................................................................................................................. 74
2.6.2 Synfuels ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
2.6.3 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................................................... 76
2.7 Bioenergy technologies ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
2.7.1 Biofuels and biomethane ............................................................................................................................................................................... 78
2.7.1.1 Liquid biofuels ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 78
2.7.1.1.1 First generation, biogasoline (ethanol) .............................................................................................................. 79
2.7.1.1.2 First generation, biodiesel .............................................................................................................................................. 79
2.7.1.1.3 Second generation, biogasoline (ethanol)....................................................................................................... 80
2.7.1.1.4 Second generation, biodiesel ...................................................................................................................................... 80
2.7.1.1.5 Carbon capture for second generation biofuels ....................................................................................... 81
2.7.1.2 Biomethane .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 81
2.7.1.3 Technology adoption pattern ........................................................................................................................................................ 81
2.7.1.4 Impact of enhanced learning ........................................................................................................................................................ 84
2.7.2 Power generation based on biomass .................................................................................................................................................. 85
2.7.2.1 Technology adoption pattern ........................................................................................................................................................ 85
2.7.2.2 Impact of enhanced learning ........................................................................................................................................................ 86
2.7.3 Hydrogen production based on biomass ......................................................................................................................................... 87
2.7.3.1 Impact of enhanced learning ........................................................................................................................................................ 87
2.8 Heat pumps .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 89
2.8.1 Heating and cooling demand ...................................................................................................................................................................... 89
2.8.2 Impacts of enhanced learning rates .................................................................................................................................................... 92
2.9 Conclusions on the analysis of technology groups .................................................................................................................................. 94
3 Overall impacts of enhanced technology learning ................................................................................................................................................ 95
3.1 Key indicators............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 95
3.1.1 CO2 emissions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 95
3.1.1.1 Emission perimeters .............................................................................................................................................................................. 95
3.1.1.2 Cumulative CO2 emissions ............................................................................................................................................................... 97
3.1.2 Energy-related investment needs .......................................................................................................................................................... 97
3.1.3 Energy supply costs .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 100
3.2 Unpaired technology learning.................................................................................................................................................................................... 104
3.2.1 Impacts on CO2 emissions .......................................................................................................................................................................... 104
3.2.2 Impacts on investment needs ................................................................................................................................................................. 108
3.2.3 Impacts on energy supply costs............................................................................................................................................................ 111
3.3 Synergies in technology learning ........................................................................................................................................................................... 115
3.3.1 Renewable electrification learning strategies ......................................................................................................................... 115
3.3.1.1 2°C scenario learning variants .................................................................................................................................................. 115
3.3.1.2 Reference scenario learning variants ................................................................................................................................. 116
3.3.2 Carbon capture learning strategies ................................................................................................................................................... 119
3.3.2.1 2°C scenario learning variants .................................................................................................................................................. 119
3.3.2.2 Reference scenario learning variants ................................................................................................................................. 120
3.3.3 Comprehensive learning strategies ................................................................................................................................................... 123
3.3.3.1 2°C scenario learning variants .................................................................................................................................................. 123
3.3.3.2 Reference scenario learning variants ................................................................................................................................. 124
3.4 Sensitivity analysis .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 127
3.4.1 Methodology and analysis .......................................................................................................................................................................... 127
3.4.1.1 Combinations and scenario variants ................................................................................................................................... 127
3.4.1.2 Graphical analysis ................................................................................................................................................................................. 128
3.4.2 CO2 emissions ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 128
3.4.2.1 Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions ................................................................................................................... 128
3.4.2.2 Cumulative CO2 emissions ............................................................................................................................................................ 132
3.4.3 Energy-related investment needs ....................................................................................................................................................... 135
3.4.4 Energy supply costs .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 138
3.5 Conclusions on the overall impacts of enhanced technology learning.............................................................................. 141
4 Socio-economic analysis .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 142
4.1 Modelling toolbox .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 143
4.1.1 Modelling of learning effects in JRC-GEM-E3 ......................................................................................................................... 144
4.2 Macroeconomic impacts ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 144
4.2.1 Impacts on employment – electrification creates job opportunities ................................................................. 145
4.2.2 Impacts in the electricity sector – the role of floor costs ............................................................................................ 147
5 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150
References .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 153
List of abbreviations and definitions ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 163
List of figures .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 166
List of tables ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
Annexes ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 172
Annex 1 Description of POLES-JRC......................................................................................................................................................................................... 173
Annex 2 JRC-GEM-E3 sectoral and regional aggregation................................................................................................................................. 179
Annex 3 Scenario details of technology groups ......................................................................................................................................................... 180
AN 3.1 Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies ..................................................................................................................................................... 180
Annex 4 Results sensitivity analysis for moderately enhanced learning ........................................................................................... 183
AN 4.1 Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions...................................................................................................................................... 183
AN 4.2 Cumulative investments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 185
AN 4.3 Energy supply cost .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 187
Annex 5 Techno-economic parameters .............................................................................................................................................................................. 189
AN 5.1 Power technologies ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 191
AN 5.2 Hydrogen production technologies.......................................................................................................................................................... 208
AN 5.3 Fuels: Biofuels, biomethane and hydrogen based fuels..................................................................................................... 212
AN 5.4 Energy demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 214
AN 5.4.1 Transport – Battery vehicles and fuel cells vehicles ......................................................................................................... 214
AN 5.4.2 Heat pump technologies............................................................................................................................................................................... 217
AN 5.5 Direct air capture (DAC) ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 218
Annex 6 Energy balances ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 219
AN 6.1 Reference scenario - Energy balance ................................................................................................................................................... 219
AN 6.2 2°C Scenario - Energy balance ................................................................................................................................................................... 226
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