KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

1. Introduction 1

2. The Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events 2

3. The Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Continuous Variables: Theory and Hypothesis 5
 3.1. The Underlying Decision-Making Process and the Importance of Cost Modeling 5
 3.2. The Link with the Quantile Score 6

4. A NewDiagnostic Tool to Assess the Value of Forecasts of Continuous Variables in Real Cases: The EVC 7
 4.1. The Potential Economic Value of Forecasts of Continuous Variables 7
 4.2. The Risk Distribution Diagram 8
 4.3. The Effective Economic Value of Forecasts of Continuous Variables in Practical Cases 9
 
5. The Value of Probabilistic and Deterministic Approaches 10

6. Application to the Energy Market 13
 6.1. Presentation of the Case Study 13
 6.2. Using the EVC Methodology 13

7. Conclusions 15

Appendix A. The Quality of the Six Simulated Forecasts 16

References 17