KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Abstract ........................................................................................................... 16 

Résumé ........................................................................................................... 17 

Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 18 

Résumé analytique ......................................................................................... 22 

1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 27 

2. Overview of the European and international hydrogen market ......... 32 
 2.1. High level overview of global hydrogen market development .............. 32 
  2.1.1. Expected development of renewable hydrogen market size .................... 32 
  2.1.2. Price elasticities and sectoral demand for renewable hydrogen .............. 40 
 2.2. Pipeline of planned renewable hydrogen production projects .............. 42 
 2.3. International hydrogen production and trade potentials ....................... 50 
  2.3.1. Morocco .................................................................................................... 55 
  2.3.2. United Arab Emirates (UAE) .................................................................... 57 
  2.3.3. Canada ..................................................................................................... 57 
  2.3.4. Brazil ........................................................................................................ 58 
  2.3.5. Chile ......................................................................................................... 58 
  2.3.6. Namibia .................................................................................................... 60 
  2.3.7. Australia ................................................................................................... 60 
  2.3.8. Comparison of LCOH ............................................................................... 61 
  2.3.9. Future trade routes in 2030 ...................................................................... 64 
 2.4. Summary and key takeaways .............................................................. 68 

3. Analytical basis: Overview of auction design elements ..................... 70 
 3.1. General design elements - auction model and objectives .................... 70 
  3.1.1. Objective of the auction ............................................................................ 72 
  3.1.2. Auctioned good and addressees of the auction ....................................... 73 
  3.1.3. Auction volume ......................................................................................... 73 
  3.1.4. Overarching auction model and matching approach ................................ 74 
  3.1.5. Type of support ........................................................................................ 76 
  3.1.6. Form of support ........................................................................................ 77 
  3.1.7. Reference market price ............................................................................ 78 
  3.1.8. Support duration ....................................................................................... 80 
  3.1.9. Indexation of support ................................................................................ 80 
  3.1.10. Segmentation into separate auction baskets ........................................... 81 
 3.2. Qualification requirements ................................................................... 82 
  3.2.1. Project requirements ................................................................................ 84 
  3.2.2. Bidder requirements ................................................................................. 85 
  3.2.3. Existence of and requirements for PPAs, HOAs, or transport agreements 85 
  3.2.4. Bid and completion bonds (financial guarantees) .................................... 86 
  3.2.5. Project size requirements ......................................................................... 86 
  3.2.6. Conformity with RFNBO requirements ..................................................... 87 
  3.2.7. Legal requirements ................................................................................... 88 
  3.2.8. Sustainability and resilience criteria ......................................................... 88 
 3.3. Auction procedure ................................................................................ 88 
  3.3.1. Single vs. multi-item auction ..................................................................... 90 
  3.3.2. One-stage vs. two-stage auction .............................................................. 90 
  3.3.3. Auction type .............................................................................................. 91 
  3.3.4. Pricing rules .............................................................................................. 92 
  3.3.5. Floor price ................................................................................................ 93 
  3.3.6. Ceiling price .............................................................................................. 93 
  3.3.7. Ranking of bids ......................................................................................... 94 
  3.3.8. Clearing mechanism and marginal bid ..................................................... 95 
  3.3.9. Tiebreaker rule ......................................................................................... 96 
 3.4. Rights and obligations ......................................................................... 96 
  3.4.1. Realisation period/ maximum time into operation .................................... 98 
  3.4.2. Sanctions in case of non-compliance with support requirements .......... 100 
  3.4.3. Payment schedules ................................................................................ 103 
  3.4.4. Reporting requirements by support recipients ........................................ 104 
 3.5. Auction and framework conditions, incl. the choice of an implementing agency ..... 106 
  3.5.1. Auction schedule .................................................................................... 108 
  3.5.2. Timing of the auction (early or late-stage auctions) ............................... 109 
  3.5.3. Implementing agency and granting authority ......................................... 110 
  3.5.4. Combination with other public funding ................................................... 112 
  3.5.5. Funding (allocation) approach ................................................................ 114 

4. Main characteristics, results and lessons learned from existing hydrogen auctions ..... 115 
 4.1. European-level auctions .................................................................... 116 
  4.1.1. EHB domestic auction for RFNBO producers in the EU ........................ 116 
  4.1.2. Auction-as-a-Service mechanism under the EHB domestic auction ...... 125 
 4.2. EU Member State auction schemes .................................................. 127 
  4.2.1. The Netherlands ..................................................................................... 127 
  4.2.2. Denmark ................................................................................................. 133 
  4.2.3. H2Global (Germany) .............................................................................. 137 
  4.2.4. H2Global (German-Dutch window) ........................................................ 143 
  4.2.5. France .................................................................................................... 145 
  4.2.6. Portugal .................................................................................................. 148 
  4.2.7. Luxembourg ........................................................................................... 151 
 4.3. Auction schemes in third countries .................................................... 155 
  4.3.1. United Kingdom ...................................................................................... 155 
  4.3.2. Chile ....................................................................................................... 160 
  4.3.3. India ........................................................................................................ 163 
  4.3.4. South Korea ........................................................................................... 167 
  4.3.5. Japan ...................................................................................................... 172 
 4.4. Evaluation of selected auction designs and assessment of their replicability for an EU import auction .... 175 
  4.4.1. EHB domestic auction for RFNBO production and auctions-as-a-service mechanism .... 176 
  4.4.2. H2Global ................................................................................................ 179 
  4.4.3. South Korea ........................................................................................... 181 
  4.4.1. Japan ...................................................................................................... 182 

5. Recommendations for the design of RFNBO import auctions under the EHB .... 184
 5.1. Priority considerations for hydrogen import auctions under the EHB and how to address them in the auction design ... 185 
  5.1.1. Creating a level playing field between domestic production and imports 185 
  5.1.2. Market development considerations ....................................................... 187 
  5.1.3. Geopolitical considerations .................................................................... 190 
  5.1.4. Competition policy considerations .......................................................... 193 
  5.1.5. Further qualitative criteria reflected in non-price criteria ........................ 195 
  5.1.6. Funding and distribution approach (Team Europe) ................................ 200 
 5.2. Case Studies: Recommended high level auction designs ................. 208 
  5.2.1. Case Study 1: Auction to facilitate import pipeline build-out to access imports from third countries ..... 209 
  5.2.2. Case Study 2: Auction to facilitate (ship-based) RFNBO imports from third countries ..... 230 

6. Conclusion ........................................................................................... 248 

7. Annex .................................................................................................... 252 

References .................................................................................................... 265