KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 

Executive summary .............................................................................................................................................................................. 4 

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 

2 Background for the study: TYNDP National Trends scenario ............................................................................. 11 
 2.1 Scenario data ...................................................................................................................................................................... 11 
 2.2 Reference Grid .................................................................................................................................................................... 11 
 2.3 Removal of candidates from the reference grid ............................................................................................ 12 
 2.4 Expansion candidates ..................................................................................................................................................... 13 

3 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 
 3.1 The METIS 3 model .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 
 3.2 Introducing TYNDP power plant classes to METIS ......................................................................................... 15 
 3.3 Power plant availabilities ............................................................................................................................................. 17 
 3.4 Hydrogen and Electrolysers ........................................................................................................................................ 18 
 3.5 Additional nodes and technologies ......................................................................................................................... 19 
 3.6 Investment candidates and cost .............................................................................................................................. 20 
 3.7 Resulting network setup in METIS ........................................................................................................................... 22 
 3.8 Accounting for CO2 emission cost outside of the EU ETS .......................................................................... 25 
 3.9 Assessing welfare effects of grid expansion delays .................................................................................... 26 
 
4 Results of the infrastructure investment study ......................................................................................................... 28 
 4.1 Results for the 2030 scenario ................................................................................................................................... 28 
 4.2 Impact of battery and electrolyser expansion at increased transmission expansion cost in 2030 .................. 31 
 4.3 Results for the 2040 scenario ................................................................................................................................... 32 
 4.4 Impact of battery and electrolyser expansion at increased transmission expansion cost in 
2040 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 
 4.5 Summary of the results ................................................................................................................................................ 35 
 4.6 Economic effects of delays of investment candidates in 2030 ............................................................ 36 
5 Discussion........................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 

6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 

References ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 44

List of abbreviations and definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 47 

List of figures ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 48 

List of tables ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 50 

Annexes ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51 
 Annex 1. Modelled market nodes ....................................................................................................................................... 51 
 Annex 2. Cost assumptions for transmission candidates .................................................................................... 52 
 Annex 3. Replication of TYNDP market prices with the METIS model in 2030 ........................................ 55 
 Annex 4. Replication of TYNDP market prices with the METIS model in 2040 ........................................ 58 
 Annex 5. Disregard of reserve requirements............................................................................................................... 59