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Executive Summary v

Geothermal Power Generation Market—Key Findings vi

Geothermal Heating and Cooling Market—Key Findings x

Emerging Opportunities—Key Findings xi

1 Introduction 1

2 Definitions and Data Sources 3
 2.1. Geothermal Power Production 4
  2.1.1. Power Production Data Sources 4
  2.1.2. Geothermal Power Capacity Types 5
  2.1.3. Geothermal Power Resource Types 5
  2.1.4. Geothermal Plant Types 5
  2.1.5. Project Development Timeline 6
 2.2. Geothermal Heating and Cooling 6
  2.2.1. Geothermal Heat Pump Definitions and Data Sources 6
  2.2.2. Geothermal District Heating and Cooling Definitions and Data Sources 7
 
3 Geothermal Power Market Update 9
 3.1. Geothermal Power Generation 9
  3.1.1. Geothermal Resource Assessment and Mapping Updates 9
  3.1.2. General Market Activity Updates 12
  3.1.3. Age of Geothermal Power Plants 13
  3.1.4. Plant Technology Market Share 14
  3.1.5. Capacity Updates by Operator Since 2020 15
  3.1.6. Production by State 15
 3.2. Developing Commercial Projects 16
  3.2.1. Project Activity by Operator 16
  3.2.2. Project Activity by State 17
  3.2.3. Project Activity by Resource Type 17
  3.2.4. Drilling Activities and Wells Spudded Since 2020 17
  3.2.5. Power Purchase and Other Offtake Agreement Activity 20
  3.2.6. Updates on Developing Projects Since 2020 21
  3.2.7. Federal Incentives Updates 22
 3.3. Cost Trends 22
  3.3.1. Cost Drivers 22
  3.3.2. Capital Cost by Activity 23
  3.3.3. Drivers for Drilling Cost Reductions 24
  3.3.4. Levelized Cost and Power Sales Price 26
 3.4. Geothermal Power Development on Public Land 28
  3.4.1. Geothermal Resources on Public Land 28
  3.4.2. Generating Capacity on Public Land 28
  3.4.3. Wells on BLM Acreage 29
  3.4.4. Geothermal Power Projects at U.S. Department of Defense Installations 30
 3.5. Progress on EGS Commercialization 31
  3.5.1. Technology Development 31
  3.5.2. Technology Commercialization 32
 3.6. Progress on Advanced (Closed-Loop) Geothermal Systems 33
  3.6.1. Technology Development 33
  3.6.2. Technology Commercialization 34
 3.7. Geothermal Power and Data Centers 35
 3.8. Geothermal Power Policy and Incentives Case Studies 36

4 Geothermal Heating and Cooling Market Update 39
 4.1. Geothermal Heat Pumps 40
  4.1.1. Technology Overview 40
  4.1.2. Geothermal Heat Pump Market Overview 41
   4.1.2.1. Nationwide Use of Geothermal Heat Pumps 41
 4.2. Geothermal District Heating and Cooling 43
  4.2.1. Technology Overview 43
  4.2.2. Geothermal Direct Use Market Overview 44
  4.2.3. TENs Market Overview 44
 4.3. Cost Trends 47
  4.3.1. Geothermal Heat Pumps 47
  4.3.2. Costs of GDU Systems 51
  4.3.3. Costs of Geothermal District Heating and Cooling on College Campuses 51
 4.4. Future Opportunities 51
  4.4.1. GHP Data Collection 51
  4.4.2. GHP Market Growth 52
  4.4.3. Geothermal District Heating and Cooling Opportunities 53
  4.4.4. Geothermal Cooling and Data Centers 53
  4.4.5. Geothermal Heating and Cooling at Federal Sites 53
 4.5. Value of Heating and Cooling to the Grid 53
 4.6. Policy Case Studies 54
  4.6.1. Geothermal Heat Pump Policy Case Studies 54
  4.6.2. Geothermal Direct Use Policy Case Studies 57

5 Market Drivers 59
 5.1. Summary of Existing Federal Policies 60
  5.1.1. Summary of Federal Geothermal Policies 60
 5.2. Summary of Existing Federal Incentive Policies 62
 5.3. Summary of Leasing and Permitting on Public Lands 62
  5.3.1. Bureau of Land Management Permitting Timelines 62
  5.3.2. Updates to Geothermal Permitting on Bureau of Land Management Lands 62
  5.3.3. BLM Leasing Data Review 64

6 Updates on Emerging Technologies and Applications 67
 6.1. Superhot Geothermal 68
 6.2. Hybrid Geothermal Systems 68
 6.3. Critical Mineral Extraction 69
 6.4. Underground Thermal Energy Storage 70
 6.5. Geologic Hydrogen 71
 6.6. Sedimentary Geothermal Resources 71
 6.7. Co-Production of Geothermal Energy from Oil and Gas Reservoirs 72
 6.8. Geothermal Microgrids 74
 6.9. Flexible and Dispatchable Geothermal Power 74
 6.10. Carbon Dioxide Utilization in Geothermal Power Systems 75

7 Conclusion 77
 7.1. Geothermal Power Sector 78
 7.2. Geothermal Heating and Cooling Sector 79
  7.2.1. Geothermal Heat Pumps 79
  7.2.2. Geothermal Direct-Use Sector 79
 7.3. Future Work 80

References 81

Appendix A. 2023 Geothermal Rising Industry Survey 101

Appendix B. NLR Geothermal Power Production Database 105

Appendix C. IGSHPA Member Survey 111

Appendix D. State Incentive Policies 113

Appendix E. State Regulatory Policies 121