KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 15 

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 23 
 Report scope and structure................................................................................................... 23 
 Scenarios .............................................................................................................................. 24 
 References ............................................................................................................................ 25 
 
Chapter 1. Ten key questions about energy technologies and their supply chains ...... 27 
 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 27 
 1. How are recent shifts in trade policy affecting clean energy technology supply chains? . 28
 2. How will today’s low profits in clean energy technology manufacturing affect innovation and investment? ..... 33 
 3. How can policy help close the cost gap with China in energy technology supply chains? ...... 38 
 4. Is the current electricity transformer shortage a cause for concern? ............................. 42 
 5. Is there a case for investing in a domestic battery sector when China holds such a large cost advantage? ..... 47 
 6. Has the hydrogen bubble burst? .................................................................................... 52 
 7. Is carbon capture, utilisation and storage finally taking off? .......................................... 57 
 8. Large, modular and fusion reactors all have renewed momentum: how quickly can nuclear be brought online? ..... 63 
 9. Can strategic industries in advanced economies restore their competitive edge? ........ 68 
 10. Is there a technology on the horizon that can replicate the explosive growth of solar PV and batteries? ...... 74 
 References ............................................................................................................................ 79 

Part A. Deployment of clean energy technologies, materials and fuels………………….83 
Chapter 2. Outlook for deployment of clean energy technologies ................................... 85 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................... 85 
 Recent market trends ............................................................................................................ 86 
 Global outlook ....................................................................................................................... 95 
 Drivers of deployment ......................................................................................................... 109 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 120 

Chapter 3. Technology deployment dashboards ............................................................. 123 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................. 123 
 Electric cars ......................................................................................................................... 124 
 Zero-emissions trucks ......................................................................................................... 126 
 Ammonia and methanol propulsion ships ........................................................................... 128 
 Buildings heat pumps .......................................................................................................... 130 
 Air conditioning systems ..................................................................................................... 132 
 Zero-carbon-ready building envelopes ............................................................................... 134 
 Industrial heat pumps .......................................................................................................... 136 
 Near-zero emissions steel .................................................................................................. 138 
 Near-zero emissions cement .............................................................................................. 140 
 Recycling ............................................................................................................................. 142 
 Solar PV and wind power .................................................................................................... 144 
 Nuclear ................................................................................................................................ 146 
 Geothermal ......................................................................................................................... 148 
 Stationary energy storage technologies ............................................................................. 150 
 Low-emissions hydrogen, ammonia and methanol ............................................................ 152 
 Sustainable aviation fuels production ................................................................................. 154 
 Carbon dioxide removal ...................................................................................................... 156 
 Technical notes on the dashboards .................................................................................... 158 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 170 

Part B. Clean energy technology manufacturing and trade………………………………. 175 
Chapter 4. Recent trends ..................................................................................................... 177 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................. 177 
 Global investment and trade ............................................................................................... 178 
 The policy landscape .......................................................................................................... 185 
 Manufacturing project pipelines .......................................................................................... 194 
 Prices and profitability ......................................................................................................... 200 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 209 

Chapter 5. Outlook for manufacturing and trade .............................................................. 217 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................. 217 
 Global trends ....................................................................................................................... 218 
 Solar PV .............................................................................................................................. 226 
 Wind .................................................................................................................................... 235 
 Electric cars and batteries ................................................................................................... 244 
 Electrolysers ........................................................................................................................ 256 
 Heat pumps ......................................................................................................................... 259 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 263 

Part C. Supply chain risks and industrial competitiveness………………………………..267 
Chapter 6. Supply chain risks ............................................................................................. 269 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................. 269 
 Supply chain security .......................................................................................................... 270 
 Concentration of supply ...................................................................................................... 271 
 Implications for security and resilience ............................................................................... 274 
 Technology-specific security considerations ...................................................................... 283 
 Maritime chokepoints .......................................................................................................... 286 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 293 

Chapter 7. Industrial competitiveness ............................................................................... 297 
 Highlights............................................................................................................................. 297 
 Drivers of competitiveness .................................................................................................. 298 
 Regional trends in the manufacturing industry ................................................................... 304 
 Competitiveness of established industries ......................................................................... 308 
 Competitiveness of clean energy technologies .................................................................. 323 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 347 

Chapter 8. Strategic considerations for clean energy technology supply chains ........ 353 
 Competitiveness and security objectives are intertwined ................................................... 354 
 Mapping the supply chain ................................................................................................... 358 
 Key considerations on security of supply ........................................................................... 359 
 Prioritising competitiveness actions .................................................................................... 364 
 References .......................................................................................................................... 371 

Annexes. Definitions, Glossary, Regional groupings, References ....................................... 373