KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Abstract 1

Non-technical summary 2

1 Introduction 4

2 Empirical Evidence 8
 2.1 Measures of Supply Chain Uncertainty 8
 2.2 State-Dependent Local Projections 10
  2.2.1 Robustness 14
 2.3 Information Value of Energy Prices 15
 2.4 Evidence from Earnings Calls 17
 2.5 SummaryofEmpiricalEvidence 20
 
3 AModeloftheSupplyChain 19
 3.1 Stylized Supply Chain Structure 20
 3.2 Final and Intermediate Product Firms 21
 3.3 Supply of Energy 22
 3.4 Market for Transportation 23
  3.4.1 A Simple Model of the Transportation Market 24
 3.5 Raw Energy 27
 3.6 Equilibrium in the Energy and Specialized Input Markets 27
  3.6.1 Equilibrium Marginal Cost 29
 3.7 Supply Chain Uncertainty 29
 3.8 Pass-Through of Energy Prices under Uncertainty 32
 3.9 Staggered Price Setting 35
  3.9.1 New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) under Uncertainty 36

4 General Equilibrium 38
 4.1 Monetary Policy and Energy Shocks: Look-Through? 40
 
5 Conclusions 43

References 44

A Appendix 47
 A.1 Proof of Proposition 1 (Impact Pass-Through) 47
 A.2 Proof of Proposition 2 (Dynamic Pass-Through) 47
 A.3 Proof of Proposition 3 (Phillips Curve under Uncertainty) 49