KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Acknowledgments .................................................... XIV

Forewords .......................................................... XVI

Executive Summary .................................................. XIX
  - Tapping into offshore wind could pave the way for a new green industry in South Africa while supporting the country's 2050 Net Zero aspiration .. XX
  - South Africa's Offshore Wind Potential ......................... XXI
  - The more OSW that is deployed in South Africa, the greater the economic benefits .. XXII
  - High growth: ambitious development leading to transformational change .. XXII
  - Medium growth: moderate development to establish a new green industry and create decent jobs .. XXIII
  - Low growth: minimal development to support the country's renewables portfolio .. XXIV
  - Recommended actions for achieving the medium and high growth scenarios .. XXV

1. Introduction .................................................... 1
2. Background ...................................................... 2
   2.1. South Africa's economic and development context ............ 2
   2.2. South Africa's electricity sector .......................... 3
   2.3. Renewable energy in South Africa ........................... 4
   2.4. The value of OSW to South Africa ........................... 5
3. Key Findings .................................................... 7
   3.1. South Africa's OSW potential ............................... 7
   3.2. OSW growth scenarios ....................................... 12
   3.3. Projected levelised cost of energy ......................... 14
   3.4. Infrastructure requirements ................................ 16
   3.5. The economic case for OSW development ...................... 19
   3.6. Regulatory frameworks and route-to-market .................. 26
   3.7. Bankability considerations and the role of public finance .. 29
4. Recommendations ................................................. 33
   4.1. No-regret actions .......................................... 33
   4.2. Actions to reach medium and high growth scenarios .......... 38

Supporting Information ............................................. 42

5. Environmental and Social Constraints ............................ 43
   5.1. Purpose .................................................... 43
   5.2. Method ..................................................... 44
   5.3. Results and discussion ..................................... 45
   5.4. Recommendations ............................................ 63
6. Geospatial Analysis ............................................. 64
   6.1. Purpose .................................................... 64
   6.2. Method ..................................................... 64
   6.3. Results and discussion ..................................... 68
   6.4. Recommendations ............................................ 74
7. Offshore Wind Growth Scenarios .................................. 75
   7.1. Purpose .................................................... 75
   7.2. Method ..................................................... 75
   7.3. Results and discussion ..................................... 76
   7.4. Recommendations ............................................ 79
8. Levelised Cost of Energy ........................................ 80
   8.1. Purpose .................................................... 80
   8.2. Method ..................................................... 80
   8.3. Results and discussion ..................................... 86
9. Grid and Transmission System .................................... 93
   9.1. Purpose .................................................... 93
   9.2. Method ..................................................... 93
   9.3. Results and discussion ..................................... 95
   9.4. Recommendations ............................................ 106
10. Power-to-X: Green Hydrogen and Desalination .................... 107
    10.1. Purpose .................................................. 107
    10.2. Method ................................................... 107
    10.3. Results and discussion ................................... 113
    10.4. Recommendations .......................................... 122
11. Port Infrastructure ............................................ 123
    11.1. Purpose .................................................. 123
    11.2. Method ................................................... 123
    11.3. Results and discussion ................................... 128
    11.4. Summary of infrastructure analysis for OSW deployment in South Africa .. 153
    11.5. Recommendations .......................................... 154
12. Supply Chain Analysis .......................................... 155
    12.1. Purpose .................................................. 155
    12.2. Method ................................................... 155
    12.3. Results and discussion ................................... 158
    12.4. Recommendations .......................................... 175
13. Jobs and Economic Benefits ..................................... 176
    13.1. Purpose .................................................. 176
    13.2. Method ................................................... 176
    13.3. Results and discussion ................................... 179
    13.4. Recommendations .......................................... 187
14. Just Transition ................................................ 188
    14.1. Purpose .................................................. 188
    14.2. Method ................................................... 188
    14.3. Results and discussion ................................... 189
    14.4. Recommendations .......................................... 200
15. Regulatory, Legal and Permitting Framework ..................... 201
    15.1. Purpose .................................................. 201
    15.2. Method ................................................... 201
    15.3. Results and discussion ................................... 203
    15.4. Recommendations .......................................... 215
16. Procurement and Commissioning Options .