KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

글로벌 재생에너지의 용량 추가 현황, 성장 예측 및 주요 장벽 등의 내용을 담은 보고서가 IEA에 게시되었습니다.

제목: Renewables 2021

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Executive summary................................................................................................................ 14

Improved policies and COP26 climate goals are set to propel renewable electricity growth to

new heights .............................................................................................................................. 14

Despite rising prices, solar PV will set new records and wind will grow faster than over the

previous five years ................................................................................................................... 15

Asia is set to overtake Europe as India and Indonesia lead renewed growth in global demand

for biofuels................................................................................................................................ 16

Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but its market share is not set to

increase significantly ................................................................................................................ 16

High commodity and energy prices bring significant uncertainties .......................................... 17

Supported by the right policies, recovery spending on renewables could unleash a huge wave

of private capital ....................................................................................................................... 18

Faster growth of renewables is within reach but requires addressing persistent challenges.. 18

Renewables’ penetration in to hard-to-decarbonise sectors is slowly emerging and promises a

bright future .............................................................................................................................. 19

Renewables need to grow faster than our forecasts to close the gap with a pathway to net

zero by 2050............................................................................................................................. 19

Chapter 1. Renewable electricity.......................................................................................... 21

Forecast summary ................................................................................................................ 21

Renewable capacity additions are set to grow faster than ever in the next five years, but the

expansion trend is not on track to meet the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario.......................... 21

Growing policy momentum worldwide is driving our forecast upward ..................................... 22

Government-led auction capacity is in slight decline, but is compensated by robust corporate

PPA activity .............................................................................................................................. 24

Top-10 countries continue to dominate renewables expansion, indicating that more diversity is

needed ..................................................................................................................................... 25

Solar PV breaks new records in our forecast, despite rising prices......................................... 26

Low wind conditions and droughts in key markets hamper more rapid growth of renewable

generation in 2021 ................................................................................................................... 30

Achieving the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario requires policy makers to significantly increase

their ambition for all renewables .............................................................................................. 34

Country and regional analysis .............................................................................................. 35

China ........................................................................................................................................ 35

United States............................................................................................................................ 37

Asia Pacific............................................................................................................................... 40

India.......................................................................................................................................... 41

Japan........................................................................................................................................ 45

Korea........................................................................................................................................ 46

ASEAN ..................................................................................................................................... 47

Australia ................................................................................................................................... 50

Europe...................................................................................................................................... 52

Germany................................................................................................................................... 54

Spain ........................................................................................................................................ 56

France ...................................................................................................................................... 58

The Netherlands....................................................................................................................... 60

Turkey ...................................................................................................................................... 62

Poland ...................................................................................................................................... 64

Italy........................................................................................................................................... 65

United Kingdom........................................................................................................................ 67

Denmark................................................................................................................................... 68

Belgium .................................................................................................................................... 69

Latin America ........................................................................................................................... 71

Sub-Saharan Africa.................................................................................................................. 78

Middle East and North Africa ................................................................................................... 81

References............................................................................................................................ 84

Chapter 2. Biofuels................................................................................................................. 89

Forecast summary ................................................................................................................ 89

Biofuels recover in 2021 despite high costs............................................................................. 89

Asia to surpass European biofuel production before 2026 ...................................................... 90

Ethanol and renewable diesel lead biofuels growth................................................................. 91

Four policy discussions to watch that will help double biofuel growth rates ............................ 91

Demand and supply .............................................................................................................. 93

Asia surpasses European biofuel demand and supply............................................................ 95

Different fuels for different parts of the world ........................................................................... 96

Fuel demand and government policies are driving different supply outcomes in different

regions...................................................................................................................................... 98

Biofuel demand growth doubles in the accelerated case ...................................................... 102

Biofuels need to expand faster to align with the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario ................. 105

Trade................................................................................................................................... 107

Renewable diesel and biojet lead growth in net trade ........................................................... 108

Singapore climbs to second largest exporter, while top importers remain the same ............ 109

Ethanol and biojet import demand drives trade growth in the accelerated case ................... 110

References.......................................................................................................................... 111

Chapter 3. Renewable heat.................................................................................................. 114

Recent trends...................................................................................................................... 114

Global progress on conversion to renewable heat has been limited ..................................... 114

Policy update....................................................................................................................... 115

Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but not enough to put the heat sector on

track to meet climate ambitions.............................................................................................. 115

Outlook to 2026................................................................................................................... 122

Buildings................................................................................................................................. 123

Industry................................................................................................................................... 125

References.......................................................................................................................... 129

Chapter 4. Renewable energy trends to watch ................................................................. 133

What is the impact of increasing commodity and energy prices on solar PV, wind and

biofuels?.............................................................................................................................. 133

Wind and solar PV ................................................................................................................. 133

How do commodity prices affect the investment costs of solar PV and onshore wind?........ 134

Rising energy prices and trade policies put additional upward price pressure on wind and

solar........................................................................................................................................ 138

Despite rising equipment prices, wind and solar remain competitive .................................... 140

How much will renewable energy benefit from global stimulus packages? ....................... 145

Focus on the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility ............................................................... 148

Could the green hydrogen boom lead to additional renewable capacity by 2026? ........... 151

How rapidly will the global electricity storage market grow by 2026? ................................ 154

Are conditions right for biojet to take flight over the next five years?................................. 157

Condition 1 – Confidence in biojet ......................................................................................... 158

Condition 2 – Costs................................................................................................................ 159

Condition 3 – Policies............................................................................................................. 160

Condition 4 – Production........................................................................................................ 161

Condition 5 – Feedstock sustainability................................................................................... 162

Are renewable heating options cost-competitive with fossil fuels in the residential sector?

............................................................................................................................................. 163

Upfront costs .......................................................................................................................... 163

Operating costs ...................................................................................................................... 165

Overall cost-competitiveness of heating technologies........................................................... 166

References.......................................................................................................................... 168

General annex....................................................................................................................... 172

Abbreviations and acronyms............................................................................................... 172

Units of measure................................................................................................................. 173

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