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제목: Gas Market Report, Q4-2022

 

 

 

[목차]

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Global Gas Security Review 2022 .................................................................. 6

Securing natural gas supply in times of crisis................................................ 7

Security of supply in the context of the current gas crisis.............................. 9

The European Union’s gas supply security faces unprecedented risks 

amid the structural uncertainty created by Russia’s behaviour................10

The European Union’s security of supply regulation identifies three stages 

of gas crisis...............................................................................................11

By the end of Q3 2022, 11 EU member states had issued early warning 

notices, while Germany declared alert level under its gas emergency plan

..................................................................................................................12

Winter is coming: Measures to enhance security of supply ahead of the 

2022/23 heating season ...........................................................................12

EU gas inventory levels stood at 87% of their working storage capacity on 

26 September 2022..................................................................................15

Maintaining storage at adequate levels for the second half of the heating 

season will be a crucial factor in ensuring the security of gas supply......16

The deliverability of underground storage sites starts to decline when 

storage levels fall below 50% of working capacity ...................................17

Gas demand savings and LNG imports will be crucial to maintain gas 

storage at adequate levels until the end of the 2022/23 heating season . 18

Simulating late cold spells: The Achilles heel of European gas supply 

security .....................................................................................................18

Solidarity, unity and responsible household behaviour will be crucial to 

ensure supply security..............................................................................20

High prices erode gas demand across the main gas markets in Asia 

Pacific .......................................................................................................22

Demand response to high LNG prices varied widely among the main 

importers in Asia.......................................................................................24

Global LNG market tightness induces shifting LNG trade patterns in Asia

..................................................................................................................25

Asian spot LNG imports collapsed in January-August 2022 ................... 26

Sailing away: Outlook for new FSRU projects sharply deteriorates in 

South and Southeast Asia ....................................................................... 27

Most of the FSRU project pipeline is at risk in South and Southeast Asia

................................................................................................................. 28

Europe’s diversification of supply triggers a flurry of developments in 

Africa and the Mediterranean .................................................................. 29

New developments in Africa contribute to growing the continent’s natural 

gas export capacity and deliverability from existing infrastructure over the 

short to medium term............................................................................... 31

LNG contracting and availability update.......................................................32

Turbulence in 2020-2022 highlights both the benefits and limitations of 

LNG market flexibility............................................................................... 33

LNG trade plays a strong balancing role in global natural gas markets.. 34

Investment decisions are recovering gradually from the low point in 2020

................................................................................................................. 35

A cautious return to investment in new liquefaction capacity .................. 36

Contracting activity has rebounded strongly since 2021 amid high and 

volatile spot prices ................................................................................... 37

The Asia Pacific region remains the dominant driver of LNG contracting 

globally..................................................................................................... 38

Contracting has returned to more traditional terms since 2020............... 39

Recent contracting trends present a shift back to destination-fixed LNG 

supply....................................................................................................... 41

Destination-flexible contracts and uncontracted capacity account for the 

bulk of additional export volumes to 2025 ............................................... 42

North America is the main source of additional contracted exports to 

2025, while Asia Pacific retains its leading role in contracted LNG imports

................................................................................................................. 43

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Portfolio players’ role in the global LNG market and their trading volumes 

are important ............................................................................................44

Expiring legacy contracts and uncontracted LNG could further boost 

market flexibility ........................................................................................46

About 180 bcm of active LNG contracts are due to expire between 2022 

and 2025, and almost 320 bcm will have expired by 2030 ......................47

Oil-linked pricing remains dominant in import contracts, though gas 

indexation is gaining ground.....................................................................48

Among export contracts, gas-indexed volumes show an increasing share, 

driven by the United States ......................................................................49

LNG capacity outages continue to tighten the global gas market............50

Gas market update and short-term forecast...............................................51

Gas demand growth from the industrial sector, which strongly recovered 

in early 2021, is being severely affected by tight supply and spiralling spot 

prices ........................................................................................................52

North American gas demand still sees some growth in 2022 in spite of 

higher prices, although a slowdown is expected for 2023 .......................53

US gas consumption was up by over 4% y-o-y in the first eight months of 

2022..........................................................................................................54

South America is expected to see negative gas consumption growth in 

2022..........................................................................................................55

South American gas demand picked up at the end of Q2, but remained 

below 2021 in H1......................................................................................56

European gas demand is set for its steepest drop in history amid record 

high prices ................................................................................................57

European gas demand is expected to drop by over 50 bcm in 2022… ...58

…largely driven by demand destruction in the industrial sector...............59

Asia’s gas demand growth grinds to a halt in 2022, followed by a modest 

3% recovery in 2023.................................................................................60

Asia’s uneven gas demand recovery continues in 2022 and 2023 ......... 62

US gas output kept growing over the summer, principally supported by 

associated production.............................................................................. 63

US dry gas production at record daily levels since June 2022................ 64

Associated gas production, led by the Permian Basin, is expected to drive 

most of the growth in 2023 ...................................................................... 65

Russia’s piped supplies to Europe fell to decade lows in Q3 2022......... 66

Record high LNG imports partially offset the shortfall in Russian piped 

gas supplies in Q3 2022 .......................................................................... 67

Global LNG trade growth is fuelled by European demand and US supply

................................................................................................................. 68

Global LNG trade growth set to continue at 5% in 2022, slowing to 4% in 

2023 ......................................................................................................... 69

Asian and European spot prices surged to new record highs in Q3 2022

................................................................................................................. 70

TTF is expected to retain its premium over Asian spot LNG prices during 

the 2022/23 heating season .................................................................... 71

Race against time: EU storage injections surge amid winter supply 

uncertainty ............................................................................................... 72

The European Union has surpassed its 80% storage target, while fill 

levels in the United States remained well below their five-year average at 

the end of Q3 2022 .................................................................................. 73

Annex ..............................................................................................................74

Summary table......................................................................................... 75

Regional and country groupings.............................................................. 76

Abbreviations and acronyms ................................................................... 77

Units of measure...................................................................................... 77

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits .......................................... 78

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