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제목: Global Energy and Climate Model

 

 

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Overview of model and scenarios........................................................................................................................5

1.1 GEC Model scenarios.........................................................................................................................6

1.2 Selected developments in 2022 ......................................................................................................10

1.3 GEC Model overview .......................................................................................................................12

2 Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions...............................................................................................................17

2.1 Population assumptions..................................................................................................................17

2.2 Macroeconomic assumptions..........................................................................................................18

2.3 Prices ...............................................................................................................................................19

2.4 Policies.............................................................................................................................................22

2.5 Techno-economic inputs.................................................................................................................23

3 End-use sectors..................................................................................................................................................25

3.1 Industry sector.................................................................................................................................25

3.2 Transport sector ..............................................................................................................................30

3.3 Buildings sector ...............................................................................................................................39

3.4 Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response...................................................................42

4 Electricity generation and heat production .......................................................................................................45

4.1 Electricity generation.......................................................................................................................45

4.2 Value-adjusted Levelized Cost of Electricity ....................................................................................50

4.3 Electricity transmission and distribution networks.........................................................................53

4.4 Hourly model ...................................................................................................................................56

4.5 Mini- and off-grid power systems ...................................................................................................57

4.6 Renewables and combined heat and power modules ....................................................................57

4.7 Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation...........................................................................59

4.8 Utility-scale battery storage ............................................................................................................60

5 Other energy transformation.............................................................................................................................61

5.1 Oil refining and trade.......................................................................................................................61

5.2 Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas.....................................................................................62

5.3 Hydrogen production and supply ....................................................................................................62

5.4 Biofuel production...........................................................................................................................65

6 Energy supply .....................................................................................................................................................69

6.1 Oil ....................................................................................................................................................69

6.2 Natural gas.......................................................................................................................................73

6.3 Coal..................................................................................................................................................74

6.4 Bioenergy.........................................................................................................................................75

7 Critical minerals..................................................................................................................................................79

7.1 Demand ...........................................................................................................................................80

7.2 Supply requirements .......................................................................................................................80

8 Emissions............................................................................................................................................................81

8.1 CO2 emissions..................................................................................................................................81

8.2 Non-CO2 greenhouse gases.............................................................................................................81

8.3 Air pollution.....................................................................................................................................82

8.4 Global temperature impacts ...........................................................................................................82

8.5 Oil and gas methane emissions model ............................................................................................82

9 Investment .........................................................................................................................................................89

9.1 Investment in fuel supply and the power sector.............................................................................89

9.2 Demand-side investments...............................................................................................................91

9.3 Financing for investments ...............................................................................................................92

9.4 Emissions performance of investments ..........................................................................................93

10 Energy and CO2 decomposition........................................................................................................................95

10.1 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................96

11 Energy access ...................................................................................................................................................97

11.1 Defining modern energy access.......................................................................................................97

11.2 Outlook for modern energy access .................................................................................................98

12 Employment.....................................................................................................................................................99

12.1 Definition and scope of employment..............................................................................................99

12.2 Estimating current employment....................................................................................................100

12.3 Outlook for employment...............................................................................................................101

13 Assessing government spending on clean energy and energy affordability ..................................................103

13.1 Government spending policy identification and collection...........................................................103

13.2 Assessing the impact on overall clean energy investment............................................................104

Annex A: Terminology........................................................................................................................................107

Definitions.................................................................................................................................................107

Regional and country groupings...............................................................................................................114

Acronyms..................................................................................................................................................118

Annex B: References ..........................................................................................................................................121

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