KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

파키스탄의 SDG7 로드맵에 대한 내용을 담은 보고서가 IRENA에 발간되었습니다.

제목 : SDG 7 Road Map for Pakistan - Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda

 

[TABLE OF CONTENTS]

1. Introduction 1

1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................................ 2

1.2. SDG 7 targets and indicators .................................................................................................................... 2

1.3. Nationally Determined Contribution.......................................................................................................... 3

1.4. NEXSTEP methodology ............................................................................................................................. 3

1.4.1. Energy and emissions modelling ............................................................................................................. 4

1.4.2. Economic analysis..................................................................................................................................... 4

1.4.3. Scenario analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 4

2. Country overview 5

2.1. Demographic and macro-economic profile.............................................................................................. 6

2.2. Energy sector overview.............................................................................................................................. 7

2.2.1. National energy profile............................................................................................................................... 7

2.2.2. National energy policies, plans, strategies and institutions .......................................................................... 9

2.2.3. National energy resources and potentials ................................................................................................... 11

3. Modelling assumptions 13

3.1. Scenario definitions ................................................................................................................................... 15

3.1.1. BAU scenario ............................................................................................................................................ 15

3.1.2. Current policies scenario ........................................................................................................................... 15

3.1.3. SDG scenario ........................................................................................................................................... 15

3.1.4. Ambitious scenario ................................................................................................................................... 15

3.2. Assumptions .............................................................................................................................................. 15

4. Energy transition outlook in the current policy scenario 17

4.1. Demand ...................................................................................................................................................... 18

4.1.1. Residential sector ..................................................................................................................................... 18

4.1.2. Industrial sector ....................................................................................................................................... 20

4.1.3. Transport sector ....................................................................................................................................... 21

4.1.4. Commercial and agriculture sectors .......................................................................................................... 22

4.2. Power sector .............................................................................................................................................. 23

4.2.1. Capacity ................................................................................................................................................... 23

4.2.2. Generation ................................................................................................................................................ 24

4.3. Supply ........................................................................................................................................................ 26

5. SDG scenario: An assessment of SDG 7 targets and indicators 27

5.1. Energy demand and supply ....................................................................................................................... 28

5.2. SDG 7 targets ............................................................................................................................................. 31

5.2.1. SDG 7.1.1, Access to electricity.................................................................................................................. 31

5.2.2. SDG 7.1.2, Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking ................................................................... 31

5.2.3. SDG 7.2, Renewable energy........................................................................................................................ 33

5.2.4. SDG 7.3, Energy efficiency.......................................................................................................................... 35

5.3. Nationally Determined Contribution targets............................................................................................. 36

5.4. Marginal abatement cost curve for achieving SDG 7 .............................................................................. 37

6. Going beyond SDG 7 39

6.1. Decarbonization of the power sector by 2030 scenario.......................................................................... 40

6.1.1. Power sector strategy in the decarbonization of the power sector scenario.................................................. 40

6.1.2. Power generation outlook .......................................................................................................................... 41

6.1.3. Challenges and opportunities to decarbonize the power sector.................................................................... 42

6.2. Decarbonization of the whole economy by 2050 scenario ..................................................................... 42

6.2.1. Demand sector strategy ............................................................................................................................ 43

6.2.2. Power sector and energy supply outlook .................................................................................................... 43

6.2.3. GHG emission outlook .............................................................................................................................. 44

7. Policy recommendations 45

7.1. Scenario evaluation.................................................................................................................................... 45

7.2. Policy actions for achieving SDG 7 ........................................................................................................... 47

7.2.1. Electric cooking stoves and improved cooking stoves provide a sustainable long-term solution with

multifold benefits ...................................................................................................................................... 47

7.2.2. Adoption of sustainable and clean heating in the residential sector to reduce air pollution-related

health impacts .......................................................................................................................................... 47

7.2.3. Raising the efficiency standards of household appliances to save running costs .......................................... 47

7.3. Policy recommendations to raise ambitions beyond SDG 7 .................................................................. 48

7.3.1. Transport electrification is a major step towards net zero 2050 ................................................................... 48

7.3.2. Incentivize industrial energy efficiency measures for a more competitive industry sector.............................. 48

7.3.3. Decarbonization of the power sector to meet national energy demand ......................................................... 49

7.3.4. Green financing ......................................................................................................................................... 49

8.Building back better from COVID-19 51

8.1. Accelerating access to clean and modern energy services.................................................................... 52

8.2. Savings from the energy sector will help to build other sectors............................................................. 52

8.3. Long-term recovery planning to build back better while ensuring sustainable growth......................... 52

Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda

SDG 7 Road Map for Pakistan

9.Conclusion and the way forward 53

References 55

Annexes 57

I. National Expert SDG 7 tool for energy planning methodology................................................................ 57

II. Key assumptions for NEXSTEP energy modelling................................................................................... 58

III. Power technologies cost and key assumptions ...................................................................................... 62

IV. Economic analysis data for clean cooking technologies........................................................................ 63

V. Summary results for the scenarios .......................................................................................................... 64

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