KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS ..........................................................................................................8
ABOUT THIS REPORT....................................................................................................9
KEY TAKEAWAYS ........................................................................................................ 11
1 REGIONAL OVERVIEW AND KEY DATA....................................................................... 13
1.1 Contribution of this report ..................................................................................................13
1.2 North Africa’s energy supply is highly dependent on fossil fuels ....................................13
1.3 North African countries show diverging patterns of electricity in final
energy demand ..................................................................................................................15
1.4 Electricity demand in North Africa is still growing strongly, requiring substantial
power sector investments ..................................................................................................16
1.5 Most North African countries have ambitious renewable electricity targets.................19
1.6 Solar and wind power in North Africa are expanding and getting cheaper................ 22
1.7 Enhanced flexibility promotes integration of solar and wind into North African
power systems .................................................................................................................... 25
2 SCENARIOS FOR NORTH AFRICA’S ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS ........................................ 31
2.1 SPLAT-N models capacity expansion in North Africa.......................................................31
2.2 Four scenarios for North Africa’s power sector were modelled...................................... 36
2.3 The three Transition scenarios differ in their assumptions ...............................................41
2.4 If investment in fossil fuel projects is discontinued, least-cost capacity expansion
is dominated by solar and wind power............................................................................ 45
2.5 Battery storage and hydrogen production are conducive to greater integration
of solar PV, but they lower the need for CSP .................................................................... 51
2.6 Wind power is an attractive investment in all North African countries, especially
in combination with hydrogen production ...................................................................... 53
2.7 Battery storage and hydrogen production lower the need for additional
cross-border interconnectivity .......................................................................................... 54
2.8 The need for battery storage increases with the share of variable renewables
in the energy mix ............................................................................................................... 65
2.9 Green hydrogen production, combined with variable renewables and storage,
could become an integral part of an interconnected electricity system .................... 69
2.10 CSP storage will be important to ensure system adequacy........................................... 75
2.11 Deployment of VRE with storage solutions can temper system costs if fossil fuel
investments are halted ..................................................................................................... 77
2.12 Holding down the levelised cost of electricity ................................................................. 79
2.13 The proposed transition towards VRE would substantially lower CO2 emissions
from power generation ...................................................................................................... 81
2.14 Additional studies could shed more light on the North African power system............. 83
2.15 Pathways to lower-cost electricity generation in North Africa ....................................... 85
REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................86