KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Comments  ..................................................................................................................................ii

Authors  ......................................................................................................................................ii

Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................iii

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................1

Key Terminology and Abbreviations .......................................................................................6

Purpose of Liftoff reports  ........................................................................................................8
 Objectives and Scope of this Liftoff report on Next-Generation Geothermal Power .........8

Chapter 1: Overview & Value Proposition  .............................................................................9
 Geothermal technology overview ............................................................................................................9
 Geothermal market development to date in the United States ................................................12
 Overall geothermal attributes & value  ..............................................................................................13
 Market for clean firm power  ...................................................................................................................13
 Market for flexible power  ........................................................................................................................16
 Geothermal value chain & workforce ..................................................................................................17
 Geothermal environmental impacts .....................................................................................................19
 Geothermal deployment potential .......................................................................................................21

Chapter 2: Next-Generation Geothermal Technology and Market  ..................................23
 Current challenges for conventional geothermal project development ...............................23
 Next-generation geothermal: Changing risk profiles ....................................................................24
 Next-generation geothermal: emerging modularity driving cost reductions today........25
 Projected future cost reductions in next-generation geothermal ...........................................25
 Next-generation geothermal costs in 2035 ......................................................................................28
 Market momentum .....................................................................................................................................29
 Tax credits .......................................................................................................................................................30

Chapter 3: Pathway to Commercial Scale  ............................................................................31
 Pathway to commercial scale ..................................................................................................................31
 Key Enablers ...................................................................................................................................................33

Chapter 4: Challenges & Potential Solutions  ......................................................................38
 Challenge: High up-front costs & risks constraining development capital and limiting geographic reach .........39
 Challenge: Perceived and actual operability risk constraining demand and investor appetite ............43 
 Challenge: Long and unpredictable development lifecycles driven by federal permitting ..........44
 Challenge: Existing business models rarely consider joint value proposition of clean firm power .......48 
 Challenge: Community opposition in some instances ..................................................................49

Chapter 5: Metrics to Track Progress ....................................................................................51

Appendix A: Modeling Appendix ..........................................................................................54
 Part 1: Methodologies and Assumptions ...........................................................................................54
 Description of analysis:  .............................................................................................................................54
 Scenario definitions .....................................................................................................................................55
 Part 2: Nationwide Deployment Results .............................................................................................56

References ................................................................................................................................58