KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

1.  Introduction 1
 
2.  Insights from Past Research and Modeling      3
 
3.  Modeling Approach 5
 3.1.  Model and Model Inputs 5
 3.2.  Representing Transmission Delays 8
 3.3.  Representing Generation Delays 9
 3.4.  Simulation Features to Represent Delays Rather Than Less Capacity 10
 
4.  Results 11
 4.1.  Effects on Generation Capacity 11
 4.2.  Effects on Generation Mix 13
 4.3.  Effects on Indicators of Reliability Risk 14
 4.4.  Costs and Benefits of Delays 15
  4.4.1.  Estimated costs and benefits of the transmission delays 15
  4.4.2.  Estimated costs and benefits of the generation delays 17
  4.4.3.  Discussion of similarity of costs 18
  4.4.4.  Relative importance of costs versus benefits 18
  4.4.5.  Costs and benefits with alternative background assumptions 18
 4.5.  Effects on State and Province Average Electricity Rates 19

5.  Limitations 20
 
6.  Conclusions 21
 
References 23
 
7.  Appendixes 29
  Appendix A: Grid Representation  29
   A.1.  Grid Geography 29
   A.2.  Differences Between Our More and Less Expanded Transmission System Models 29
   A.3.  Grid Reconciliation 30
   A.4.  Modified Ward Reduction Process 31
   A.5.  Bus Location Imputation Algorithm 31
 Appendix B: Model Assumptions Using E4ST 32
 Appendix C: Policy Assumptions 33
 Appendix D:  Technology Assumptions 35
 Appendix E:  Sensitivity Simulations 37
 Appendix F: Effects of Delays on Generation Capacity in the Central Case and Sensitivities 39
 Appendix G: Effects of Delays on Generation in the Central Case and Sensitivities 45