KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

AUTHORS .............................................................................................................. 2 

CONTRACT DETAILS ................................................................................................ 3 

1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 6 

2. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS ............................................................................ 8 
 Task 1: Top-down methodologies for short-term estimation of the overall primary and final energy and specifically natural gas consumption evolution and savings as well related CO2 emission savings at the overall economy and for main economic sectors on annual, quarterly and monthly basis ..... 8 
  Objective and scope ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 
  Data availability and literature review ...................................................................................................................... 9 
  Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................... 16 
  Deliverable ........................................................................................................................................................................ 26 
  Sample of results at EU-level ..................................................................................................................................... 27 
 Task 2: Bottom-up methodologies to estimate energy and CO2 emission savings generated by main types of energy efficiency measures ... 33 
  Objective and conceptional approach ................................................................................................................... 33 
  Development of a narrative for Task 2 .................................................................................................................. 35 
  Data availability on energy efficiency and methodological approach  .................................................... 38 
  Supply-side reactions to the energy crisis and energy storage .................................................................. 40 
  Methodological approaches to derive energy saving impacts of energy efficiency measures ...... 44 
  Deriving energy and CO2 savings for energy efficiency measures adopted by the Member States before 2022 and over the periods 2022 – 2024 ...... 48 
   The European level ........................................................................................................................................................ 48 
   Detailed analyses at national level for 7 selected member states .............................................................. 51 
   Detailed comparison of the derived energy efficiency savings for selected member states .......... 57 
  Linking top-down (Task 1) and bottom-up savings (Task 2) ........................................................................ 60 
   Linking top-down and bottom-up – Analysis on the European level ....................................................... 61 
   Linking top-down and bottom-up – Analysis on the national level for seven member states ....... 64 
   Additional analyses of energy prices ...................................................................................................................... 77 

3. CRITICAL ANALYSIS AND POTENTIAL NEXT STEPS ................................................ 88 
 Task 1 ............................................................................................................................................................... 88 
 Task 2 ............................................................................................................................................................... 90 

ANNEXES ............................................................................................................. 92 
 ANNEX A – Time plan of the project .................................................................................................................. 92
 ANNEX B – Minutes of the Kick-Off Meeting ................................................................................................. 93 
 ANNEX C – Regressions .......................................................................................................................................... 96 
 ANNEX D – Snapshots of Deliverable 1.5 ...................................................................................................... 101 
 ANNEX E – Interview guideline.......................................................................................................................... 104 
 ANNEX F – Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................... 105