KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 10 

Chapter 1. State of play ......................................................................................................... 15 
 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 15 
 Economics, demographics and climate ................................................................................ 15 
  Economic growth ...................................................................................................................... 15 
  Fossil fuel subsidies ................................................................................................................. 19 
  Demographics .......................................................................................................................... 21 
  Climate change and rising temperatures ................................................................................. 22 
  Conflicts and population displacement .................................................................................... 26 
 Energy in the MENA region .................................................................................................. 30 
  Total energy demand ............................................................................................................... 30 
  Total final energy consumption ................................................................................................ 32 
 Electricity in the MENA region .............................................................................................. 35 
  Electricity demand .................................................................................................................... 35 
  Electricity supply ...................................................................................................................... 39 
  Power sector investment .......................................................................................................... 51 
  Power sector CO2 emissions ................................................................................................... 53 

Chapter 2. Pathways for electricity demand and supply in the MENA region................. 54 
 Which way from here? .......................................................................................................... 54 
  Scenarios ................................................................................................................................. 54 
  Policy landscape ...................................................................................................................... 55 
  Population and macroeconomic outlook .................................................................................. 58 
  Clean technology costs ............................................................................................................ 60 
 Electricity demand outlook .................................................................................................... 63 
  Electricity demand growth ........................................................................................................ 63 
  Energy needs by sector: The role of electrification .................................................................. 65 
  Evolution of electricity demand by end use .............................................................................. 68 
  Major country-level electricity demand projects ....................................................................... 71 
 Electricity supply outlook ....................................................................................................... 73 
  Electricity generation ................................................................................................................ 73 
  Power capacity ......................................................................................................................... 76 
  Electricity security .................................................................................................................... 80 
  Power sector investment .......................................................................................................... 85 
  Power sector fossil fuel consumption and emissions............................................................... 87

Chapter 3. Designing future-proof power systems ............................................................ 90 
 Nine vital factors .................................................................................................................... 90 
  1. How can electricity systems stay balanced with rising shares of solar PV and wind? ........ 91 
  2. What is the role of cooling in peak demand growth? ........................................................... 96 
  3. How can efficiency opportunities in buildings help manage electricity demand growth? .. 101 
  4. How will new desalination technologies and rising water stress impact electricity demand?.. 106 
  5. What role do grid interconnections play in the MENA region? .......................................... 113 
  6. What are the policy frameworks driving renewables deployment in the MENA region? ... 121 
  7. Can clean energy spur industrial development in the region? ........................................... 127 
  8. What role can distributed power generation play in bringing resilience in post-conflict areas? ... 132 
  9. What impact could increased renewables have on oil and gas export volumes?  ............ 139