KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 9 

Chapter 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 13 
 Coal power retirements .................................................................................................................... 13 
 The potential of nuclear energy to replace coal ............................................................................ 14 
 Objectives of this report ................................................................................................................... 15 

Chapter 2. Coal power today, nuclear replacements primer, and technical requirements of coal replacement .... 17 
 Ageing ................................................................................................................................................. 18 
 National regulation and policies ..................................................................................................... 20 
 Alternative technologies .................................................................................................................. 21 
 System costs ...................................................................................................................................... 21 
 Baseload .............................................................................................................................................. 23 
 Human capital ................................................................................................................................... 23 
 Replacing, repurposing and repowering ........................................................................................ 23 
 Nuclear energy and small modular reactors (SMRs) for coal replacement ............................... 24 
 Technical requirements of coal replacement ................................................................................ 26 
 Non-technical requirements of coal replacement ........................................................................ 26 
 
Chapter 3. Global addressable market for coal replacement ......................................................... 27 
 From an overall market to a realistic potential market ............................................................... 27 
 Effects of the filters on the overall market .................................................................................... 28 
 Organising the potential market for SMRs into time frames ...................................................... 31 
 Immediate: Potential market by 2035 ............................................................................................. 31 
 Near term: Potential market by 2040 .............................................................................................. 33 
 Longer term: Potential market after 2040 ...................................................................................... 38 
 Estimate of the total potential market for coal replacement with nuclear energy .................. 44 

Chapter 4. End user perspective ......................................................................................................... 47 
 Timeline mismatch: Coal-to-gas instead of coal-to-nuclear ....................................................... 47 
 Nuclear experience matters ............................................................................................................. 48 
 Many fast followers, few first movers ............................................................................................ 48 
 Potential synergies in the coal and nuclear sectors ..................................................................... 49 
 The role for governments ................................................................................................................. 50 
 Nuclear deployment policies ........................................................................................................... 50 
 Regulatory frameworks .................................................................................................................... 50 
 Economic incentives ......................................................................................................................... 51 

Chapter 5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 53 
 Global imperative for a reliable energy transition ........................................................................ 53 
 Addressable market and feasibility ................................................................................................ 53 
 End-user perspectives and challenges ........................................................................................... 54 
 Role of government in creating enabling policy frameworks ..................................................... 54 
 Opportunities for future analysis .................................................................................................... 55 
 
References .............................................................................................................................................. 57 

List of boxes 
 1.  The United Kingdom’s journey to a coal power phase-out ................................................ 33 
 2.  How France achieved its decarbonised electricity grid by phasing out coal  and deploying nuclear energy ... 35 
 3.  How coal phase-out helped clear the air in Ontario ............................................................ 36 
 4.  Coal-to-nuclear transition in Korea ....................................................................................... 39 
 5.  Czechia’s coal-to-nuclear transition ...................................................................................... 41 
 6.  Potential of coal-fired power plant conversion to nuclear energy in ASEAN ................... 42 
 7.  India is converting coal power plants into nuclear power locations – A distinct possibility…with caveats ...... 45