KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Section 1:  Overview of model and scenarios .......................................................................................................... 5 
 1.1 GEC Model scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 6 
 1.2 Selected developments in 2025 ........................................................................................................ 8 
 1.3 GEC Model overview ....................................................................................................................... 10 

Section 2:  Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions ................................................................................................. 17 
 2.1 Population assumptions .................................................................................................................. 17 
 2.2 Macroeconomic assumptions .......................................................................................................... 18 
 2.3 Prices ............................................................................................................................................... 19 
 2.4 Policies ............................................................................................................................................. 22 
 2.5 Techno-economic inputs ................................................................................................................. 23 

Section 3:  End-use sectors .................................................................................................................................... 25 
 3.1 Industry ............................................................................................................................................ 25 
 3.2 Transport ......................................................................................................................................... 30 
 3.3 Buildings .......................................................................................................................................... 41 
 3.4 Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response ................................................................... 46 

Section 4:  Electricity generation and heat production.......................................................................................... 51 
 4.1 Electricity generation ....................................................................................................................... 51 
 4.2 Value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity .................................................................................... 56 
 4.3 Electricity transmission and distribution networks ......................................................................... 59 
 4.4 Hourly electricity models ................................................................................................................. 62 
 4.5 Mini- and off-grid power systems ................................................................................................... 65 
 4.6 Renewables and combined heat and power modules .................................................................... 65 
 4.7 Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation ........................................................................... 67 
 4.8 Battery storage ................................................................................................................................ 67 
 
Section 5:  Other energy transformation ............................................................................................................... 69 
 5.1 Oil refining and trade ....................................................................................................................... 69 
 5.2 Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas ..................................................................................... 70 
 5.3 Hydrogen production and trade ...................................................................................................... 70 
 5.4 Biofuel production ........................................................................................................................... 73 
 
Section 6:  Energy supply ....................................................................................................................................... 77 
 6.1 Oil .................................................................................................................................................... 77 
 6.2 Natural gas ....................................................................................................................................... 81 
 6.3 Coal .................................................................................................................................................. 81 
 6.4 Bioenergy ......................................................................................................................................... 82 
  
Section 7:  Critical minerals .................................................................................................................................... 87 
 7.1 Demand ........................................................................................................................................... 88 
 7.2 Primary and secondary supply projections ..................................................................................... 88 

Section 8:  Emissions .............................................................................................................................................. 91 
 8.1 CO2 emissions .................................................................................................................................. 91 
 8.2 Methane emissions ......................................................................................................................... 91 
 8.3 Other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions ...................................................................................... 92 
 8.4 Air pollution ..................................................................................................................................... 92 
 8.5 Global temperature impacts ........................................................................................................... 93 

Section 9:  Energy and CO2 decomposition ............................................................................................................ 95 
 
Section 10:  Investment ......................................................................................................................................... 97 
 10.1 Investment in fuel supply and the power sector ............................................................................. 97 
 10.2 Demand-side investments ............................................................................................................... 99 
 10.3 Financing for investments ............................................................................................................. 100 
 
Section 11:  Energy access ................................................................................................................................... 103 
 11.1 Definition of modern energy access .............................................................................................. 103 
 11.2 Outlook for modern energy access ............................................................................................... 104 
 
Section 12:  Employment ..................................................................................................................................... 107 
 12.1 Definition and scope of employment ............................................................................................ 107 
 12.2 Estimating current employment .................................................................................................... 108 
 12.3 Outlook for employment ............................................................................................................... 110 

Section 13:  Government spending and energy affordability .............................................................................. 111 
 13.1 Policy identification and collection ................................................................................................ 111 
 
Section 14:  Household energy expenditures analysis ......................................................................................... 112 
 14.1 Definitions and coverage ............................................................................................................... 112 
 14.2 Input data ...................................................................................................................................... 112 
 14.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 113 
 14.4 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 114 

Annex A:  Terminology ........................................................................................................................................ 115 
 Definitions ................................................................................................................................................. 115 
 Regional and country groupings ............................................................................................................... 125 
 Abbreviations and acronyms .................................................................................................................... 128 

Annex B:  References .......................................................................................................................................... 133