KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Foreword .......... 3 

Acknowledgements ........... 5 

Executive summary ............ 17 

Part A: Overview and context .... 25 
 Overview and key findings 27 
  Introduction .................................................... 28 
  1.1 Which way is the energy world heading? ............................... 30 
   1.1.1 Electricity and emerging market and developing economies drive energy expansion............... 30 
   1.1.2 Do we still see demand peaks for coal, oil and natural gas? ............. 32 
   1.1.3 How do market balances play out in the different scenarios? .......... 33 
  1.2 What are the implications of the IEA scenarios for the global climate and for COP30? ............. 36
   1.2.1 Outlook for emissions in the exploratory scenarios .......................... 36 
   1.2.2 Temperature outcomes in the scenarios ........................................... 37 
   1.2.3 A limited overshoot pathway to 1.5 °C has slipped out of reach, but avoiding the worst climate outcomes is still possible ................. 38 
   1.2.4 What can be done to get on track? ................................................... 39 
  1.3 How are the drivers of future global energy demand different from those in the past?  .................................. 42 
   1.3.1 Drivers of energy growth of the past are not the ones of tomorrow 42 
   1.3.2 Engines of demand growth are shifting across fuels and regions ..... 43 
   1.3.3 Clean technologies and emerging sectors redefine growth .............. 45 
  1.4 What does the Age of Electricity mean for affordability?  ............................ 47 
   1.4.1 Household electricity demand  ... 47 
   1.4.2 Pressures on electricity prices .... 48 
   1.4.3 Household electricity bills ........... 50 
  1.5 How much difference will AI make to the future of energy?  ....................... 51 
   1.5.1 Electricity demand outlook from data centres .................................. 51 
   1.5.2 Electricity supply to meet data centre loads ..................................... 53 
   1.5.3 AI for energy ............................... 54 
   1.5.4 Known unknowns: a longer term view of AI implications on the outlook ....................................... 55 
  1.6 What more needs to be done to provide universal, affordable access to electricity and clean cooking?  ............... 56 
   1.6.1 Clean cooking access .................. 57 
   1.6.2 Electricity access ......................... 59 
  1.7 How are critical minerals and other emerging issues changing the energy security landscape? .................... 61 
   1.7.1 Critical minerals and energy technology supply chains ..................... 62 
   1.7.2 Electricity security....................... 64 
   1.7.3 Infrastructure resilience ............. 66 
   1.7.4 Oil and gas supply chains ............ 67 
  1.8 Where will all the LNG go? ..................... 68 
   1.8.1 Global LNG outlook to 2035 ....... 69 
   1.8.2 Advanced economies .................. 70 
   1.8.3 Emerging market and developing economies in Asia ........................ 71 
   1.8.4 Implications for exporters .......... 72 
  1.9 There is ample manufacturing capacity for many clean energy technologies, especially solar PV and batteries: will we use it? .................... 74 
  1.10 Where are the gaps in global energy investment? ........................................ 78 
   1.10.1 By fuel and technology ............... 79 
   1.10.2 By country and region ................ 82 
 Setting the scene 85 
  2.1 Introduction ............................................ 87 
  2.2 Context for the World Energy Outlook-2025 ................................................. 88 
   2.2.1 Energy demand, investment, technology and emissions trends ....... 88 
   2.2.2 Macroeconomic and geopolitical context ......................................... 94 
   2.2.3 Energy policy developments ....... 98 
  2.3 WEO scenarios ...................................... 104 
   2.3.1 GDP and population.................. 106 
   2.3.2 Prices ........................................ 108 
   2.3.3 Technology costs ...................... 112 

Part B: Outlooks based on existing trends and policies .................... 117 
 Current Policies Scenario 119 
  3.1 Introduction .......................................... 121 
  3.2 Overview .............................................. 121 
   3.2.1 Total energy demand ................ 121 
   3.2.2 CO2 emissions ........................... 124 
  3.3 Total final consumption ........................ 125 
   3.3.1 Transport .................................. 126 
   3.3.2 Buildings ................................... 131 
   3.3.3 Industry ..................................... 134 
  3.4 Electricity .............................................. 137 
   3.4.1 Demand .................................... 137 
   3.4.2 Electricity generation ................ 139 
   3.4.3 Electricity grids ......................... 145 
  3.5 Fossil fuels ............................................ 151 
   3.5.1 Oil ............................................. 152 
   3.5.2 Natural gas ................................ 161 
   3.5.3 Coal ........................................... 166 
 Stated Policies Scenario 171 
  4.1 Introduction .......................................... 173 
  4.2 Overview .............................................. 174 
   4.2.1 Total energy demand ................ 174 
   4.2.2 CO2 emissions ........................... 176 
  4.3 Total final consumption ........................ 177 
   4.3.1 Transport .................................. 178 
   4.3.2 Buildings ................................... 183 
   4.3.3 Industry ..................................... 188 
  4.4 Electricity .............................................. 193 
   4.4.1 Demand .................................... 193 
   4.4.2 Electricity generation ................ 197 
   4.4.3 Electricity grids ......................... 207
  4.5 Fuels ..................................................... 207 
   4.5.1 Oil ............................................. 208 
   4.5.2 Natural gas ................................ 214 
   4.5.3 Coal ........................................... 219 
   4.5.4 Low-emissions fuels .................. 222 
 Implications of CPS and STEPS 227 
  5.1 Overview .............................................. 229 
  5.2 Energy security ..................................... 233 
   5.2.1 Fuel security.............................. 234 
   5.2.2 Electricity security..................... 240 
   5.2.3 Critical minerals and energy technology supply chains ................... 247 
   5.2.4 Extreme weather events .......... 256 
  5.3 Emissions .............................................. 264 
   5.3.1 Air pollution and human health  267 
  5.4 Investment and affordability ................ 269 
   5.4.1 Energy investment .................... 269 
   5.4.2 Affordability for households ..... 273 
   5.4.3 Energy employment ................. 278 

Part C: Outlooks based on goals and pledges .................................. 281 
 Achieving access for all 283 
  6.1 Introduction .......................................... 285 
  6.2 Clean cooking ....................................... 286 
   6.2.1 State of play .............................. 286 
   6.2.2 Outlook ..................................... 289 
   6.2.3 Investment ................................ 293 
  6.3 Electricity access ................................... 297 
   6.3.1 State of play .............................. 297 
   6.3.2 Outlook ..................................... 300 
   6.3.3 Investment ................................ 303 
  6.4 Moving beyond access ......................... 307
 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 313 
  7.1 Context ................................................. 315 
  7.2 Pathways for emissions and temperature ................................................... 321 
   7.2.1 Emissions .................................. 321 
   7.2.2 Climate outcomes ..................... 325 
  7.3 Energy pathways in the NZE Scenario .. 329 
   7.3.1 Clean electrification .................. 329 
   7.3.2 Energy efficiency ....................... 335 
   7.3.3 Filling up on low-emissions fuels ..................................................... 338 
   7.3.4 Cutting energy-related methane emissions .................................... 343 
  7.4 Implications .......................................... 345 
   7.4.1 Investment ................................ 345 
   7.4.2 Social inclusion ......................... 347 
   7.4.3 Energy security ......................... 351 
   7.4.4 Implications for the next ten years .................................................. 353 

Part D: Regional insights .......... 355 
 Regional insights 357 
  8.1 Introduction .......................................... 359 
  8.2 United States ........................................ 363 
  8.3 Latin America and the Caribbean ......... 369 
  8.4 European Union .................................... 373 
  8.5 Africa .................................................... 378 
  8.6 Middle East ........................................... 382 
  8.7 Eurasia .................................................. 386 
  8.8 China ..................................................... 390 
  8.9 India ...................................................... 394 
  8.10 Japan and Korea ................................... 398 
  8.11 Southeast Asia ...................................... 402

Annexes  
 Annex A. Tables for scenario projections ..................... 409 
 Annex B. Design of the scenarios ................................. 447 
 Annex C. Definitions ..................................................... 475 
 Annex D. References .................................................... 497 
 Annex E. Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model .................................... 509