KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

1. Introduction: The Strategic Constraint Problem ..................................... 1

2. The Supply Chain Compliance Framework ............................................. 2
   2.1. What Is the Material Assistance Cost Ratio? ................................... 3
   2.2. How Does the Regulation Affect Section 45X Tax Credits for Battery Manufacturers? .. 3
   2.3. What Inputs Does "Material Assistance" Encompass? ............................. 5
   2.4. Takeaway: Compliance Is about Control and Cost Structure, Not Just Geography .. 5

3. The Battery Supply Chain: Implications for Compliance .............................. 5
   3.1. Upstream Mining ............................................................... 6
   3.2. Midstream Processing .......................................................... 7
   3.3. Downstream Manufacturing ...................................................... 9
   3.4. Supply Chain Takeaways ........................................................ 9

4. Where the Constraints Bind in Current Supply Chains ................................ 11
   4.1. Regulatory and Traceability Constraints ....................................... 11
   4.2. Trade Exposure and the Limits of Substitution ................................. 12
   4.3. Capital and Scale Feasibility Constraints ..................................... 15
   4.4. Technological Dependence Constraints .......................................... 18

5. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for US Battery Manufacturing ........................ 21
   5.1. Scenario 1: The Framework Succeeds and an Adequate Friendshored Supply Chain Emerges .. 22
   5.2. Scenario 2: The Framework Expands Friendshored Capacity, But Not Fast Enough .. 22
   5.3. Scenario 3: The Framework Fails and US Manufacturers Remain Dependent ......... 23

6. Policy Implications ................................................................ 24
   6.1. Compliance Requires More Than Geographic Diversification ...................... 24
   6.2. Midstream Capacity Is the Critical Constraint ................................. 25
   6.3. Policy Consistency and Capital Access Enable Diversification .................. 25
   6.4. Compliance Timelines Should Reflect Industrial Realities ...................... 26

7. References ......................................................................... 27