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제목: Gas Market Report, Q4 2021

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Gas Market Report Q4 2021 including Global Gas Security Review 2021 1

Abstract.................................................................................................. 2

Table of contents ................................................................................... 3

Global Gas Security Review 2021 .................................................................. 6

Main findings.......................................................................................... 7

Review of recent gas security-related events ................................................ 9

January 2021: Cold spell in Northeast Asia ............................................ 10

The winter crisis in Northeast Asia led to record high LNG prices and

repercussions across Asia................................................................... 11

Japan: Local electricity market tightness and global LNG bottlenecks

push prices to record levels ................................................................. 12

Japanese buyers pay record high prices for spot LNG in January 2021

............................................................................................................. 13

China: Record high LNG imports alleviate gas supply shortages amid

the cold spell ........................................................................................ 14

Chinese LNG imports broke new monthly records in January 2021 ... 15

Korea: no disruption during the January 2021 winter energy crisis..... 16

Cold snap in January 2021 pushed monthly gas demand to all-time

high levels in Korea.............................................................................. 17

Emerging Asia: Priced out of spot LNG trade during the winter price

spikes................................................................................................... 18

Price sensitivity in emerging Asia on display during the January 2021

price spikes .......................................................................................... 19

February 2021: Winter storm in North America....................................... 20

The deep freeze in Texas revealed the many interdependencies

between gas and power systems…..................................................... 21

… and the need for a holistic approach to energy security taking into

account the central role of the power system ...................................... 22

Storm Uri brought a cold spell to Texas not seen in decades…..........23

…driving up electricity and natural gas demand on higher space

heating requirements............................................................................24

Surge in electricity demand combined with weather-related power

generation outages led to rotating power cuts in Texas.......................25

The natural gas system faced several outages along the supply

chain… ................................................................................................. 26

…with half of the decline in Texan gas production occurring before the

start of the power cuts ..........................................................................27

Upstream underperformance and power cuts put additional stress on

the gas system .....................................................................................28

Storage withdrawals and optimisation of gas flows could not avoid a

short gas system ..................................................................................29

Droughts across hydro-rich power markets increase call on flexible gas 30

In Turkey gas-fired power generation surged amid plummeting hydro

generation and strong electricity demand growth ................................31

Flexible pipeline supplies ramped up amid the surge

in Turkey’s gasfired power generation..........................................................................32

Brazil’s gas-fired power generation soared to new records in Q3 2021

amid the country’s worst drought in nearly a century… .......................33

…with flexible US LNG imports providing most of the incremental gas

supply ...................................................................................................34

Historic drought in California drove up gas-fired power generation… . 35

…leading to higher pipeline inflows and storage optimisation .............36

LNG contracting and availability update......................................................37

Update on LNG market flexibility metrics .............................................38

LNG trade flexibility at work..................................................................39

FID count remains low in 2021, but with one major capacity addition . 40

Investment activity remains limited in 2021 by number of projects, but

not by volume .......................................................................................41

Slowdown in contracting activity lingers in 2021, with limited portfolio

sourcing ............................................................................................... 42

Portfolio players’ contracting activity shrinks in 2021 on both the selling

and the buying side.............................................................................. 43

Large long-term contracts with a fixed destination have made a

comeback in 2020 and 2021................................................................ 44

A shift back to fixed-destination contracts ........................................... 45

Portfolio players remain important sources of LNG market flexibility.. 46

Portfolio players’ net open position is set to widen further by 2024 .... 47

Contract flexibility and market opportunity........................................... 48

Destination-flexible volumes have dominated the LNG contract mix

since 2020............................................................................................ 49

Contract expiry could serve as a catalyst for further diversification of

LNG contracts ...................................................................................... 50

Oil-linked pricing remains dominant in import contracts, although gasto-gas indexation has a role to play..................................................... 51

Among export contracts, the United States is the leading source of gasto-gas indexed volumes....................................................................... 52

Out of order: LNG capacity outages set new records.......................... 53

Unplanned issues pushed LNG capacity outages to fresh highs in 2020

............................................................................................................. 54

LNG capacity outages hit an all-time high in 2020 and have stayed

elevated so far in 2021 ........................................................................ 55

Low-carbon gases and security of supply: System integration and flexibility

considerations ..............................................................................................56

Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 requires the prompt deployment

of low-carbon gases............................................................................. 57

…leading to a more complex and intertwined multi-gas system ......... 58

The decentralised production of low-carbon gases will necessitate

closer integration between transmission and distribution networks .... 59

A greater diversity of gas qualities will raise questions related to

interoperability...................................................................................... 60

Hydrogen blending thresholds are not currently harmonised ..............61

The integration of low-carbon gases will have profound implications for

gas supply flexibility..............................................................................62

Gas supply flexibility is ensured through a range of tools along the

value chain ...........................................................................................63

Flexibility matrix of low-carbon gases...................................................66

Gas market update and short-term forecast ..............................................67

Fast and furious – tighter fundamentals trigger natural gas price

escalation .............................................................................................68

US power generation’s switch back to coal on higher gas prices may

delay North America’s return to pre-Covid levels of gas demand........69

Lower use in power generation dragged total US gas demand growth

into negative territory in Q3 ..................................................................70

Record droughts and recovering activity support gas consumption

growth in Central and South America...................................................71

Strong Brazilian needs pushed South American gas demand in June to

its highest monthly level since January 2020.......................................72

Following strong growth in H1 2021, European gas consumption

dropped in Q3 2021… ..........................................................................73

…as record high gas prices led to gas-to-coal switching in the

European power sector ........................................................................74

Asia’s uneven gas demand recovery continues in 2021-2022, despite

headwinds from high prices..................................................................75

Asia’s demand recovery is led by China and Korea; India and emerging

Asia to catch up in 2022 .......................................................................77

Q1 lows in US gas output were balanced by summer growth, but

limited increase is expected until 2022.................................................78

US gas production continued to grow during the summer, stands

slightly above 2020’s level over the first nine months of 2021.............79

US dry gas production is expected to marginally increase in 2021

thanks to Appalachian plays; further growth is foreseen in 2022 with a

rebound in associated shale gas output...............................................80

Stronger than expected LNG trade growth of 5% in 2021 is set to

decelerate to 2% in 2022 ..................................................................... 85

Asia Pacific drives LNG import growth and North America leads LNG

export growth in 2021-2022 ................................................................. 86

Annex ...........................................................................................................93

Summary table..................................................................................... 94

Regional and country groupings .......................................................... 95

Abbreviations and acronyms ............................................................... 96

Units of measure.................................................................................. 96

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits ...................................... 97

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