KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

'청정 에너지 전환'을 목표로 글로벌 에너지 공급 및 수요, 에너지 안보, 기후 목표 및 경제 개발에 대한 다양한 시나리오를 분석한 '세계 에너지 전망 2021' 보고서가 IEA에 발간되었습니다.

제목: World Energy Outlook 2021

IEA에서 발간된 ‘2021 세계 에너지 전망’ 보고서는 에너지 수요 및 탄소 배출의 세 가지 시나리오(NZE, APS, STEPS)를 제시하고 있으며, 2050년까지 ‘글로벌 넷제로’와 ‘지구온난화의 1.5°C 제한’이라는 목표 달성을 위한 로드맵을 제시하고 있음.

- NZE(Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario): 2050 글로벌 넷제로 달성 시나리오

- APS(Announced Pledges Scenario): 모든 글로벌 기후 공약의 정시 완수 시나리오

- STEPS(Stated Policies Scenario): 현재 전세계적으로 공표되었거나 시행 중인 정책을 부문별 평가에 따라 반영하는 시나리오

(NZE) 2050년까지 전 세계가 넷제로를 달성하려면 2030년까지 청정 에너지 부문에 연간 약 4조 달러의 투자가 필요하며, 신흥국과 개발도상국에 더 많은 투자가 이루어져야 함.

(NZE) NZE 시나리오에서는 연간 1조 달러에 달하는 청정에너지 관련 시장 기회가 생기지만, 그 과정에서 일자리를 잃는 화석에너지 관련 종사자들에 대한 지원이 필요함.

(NZE) ‘2021 세계 에너지 전망’에서는 목표 달성을 위하여 ‘청정 에너지를 이용한 전기화 추진’, ‘에너지 효율 상승을 위한 노력’, ‘화석 연료 운영으로 인한 메탄 배출의 감축’, ‘청정 에너지 기술 혁신’의 4가지 주요 대책을 강조하고 있음. 

< 시나리오별 태양광 PV 및 풍력 발전량(TWh), 2010-2050 >
시나리오	2010년	2020년	2030년	2040년	2050년
STEPS	374	2,429	7,594	13,328	18,472
APS			9,305	19,770	28,578
NZE			14,978	35,818	48,254

< 시나리오별 전 세계 배출량, 2000-2050 >

STEPS 시나리오에서는 신흥국과 개발도상국이 계속해서 인프라를 구축하는 과정에서 발생되는 연간 CO2 배출량이 현재 수준으로 유지되어, 지구 평균 기온은 산업혁명 이전 대비 2030년 1.5°C, 2100년에 2.6°C 이상 상승함.

APS 시나리오에서는 2050년까지 CO2 배출량이 STEPS 시나리오 대비 40% 감소함에도 지구 평균 기온은 2100년까지 2.1°C 상승함.

[목차]

Foreword........................................................................................................................... 3

Acknowledgements........................................................................................................... 5

Executive summary ......................................................................................................... 15

Introduction .................................................................................................................... 23

Overview 25

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 27

    1.1 A new energy economy is emerging.............................................................. 29

    1.2 Scenario trajectories and temperature outcomes ........................................ 32

    1.3 Keeping the door to 1.5 °C open ................................................................... 36

    1.4 Energy consumers of tomorrow.................................................................... 43

    1.5 Mobilising investment and finance ............................................................... 47

    1.6 People-centred transitions............................................................................ 53

    1.7 Phasing out coal ............................................................................................ 57

    1.8 Prices and affordability.................................................................................. 63

    1.9 Energy security and the risk of disorderly change......................................... 68

    1.10 Fuels: old and new......................................................................................... 73

2. State of play 79

    2.1 Introduction................................................................................................... 81

    2.2 Energy and the Covid-19 pandemic............................................................... 82

    2.2.1 Economy and public health ............................................................... 82

    2.2.2 Recovery spending and energy investment....................................... 85

    2.2.3 Energy demand and supply ............................................................... 88

    2.2.4 Emissions........................................................................................... 91

    2.3 Where do we go from here? ......................................................................... 92

    2.3.1 Climate pledges ................................................................................. 92

    2.3.2 WEO-2021 scenarios.......................................................................... 94

    2.4 Inputs to the scenarios.................................................................................. 96

    2.4.1 Economic and population assumptions............................................. 96    

    2.4.2 Energy prices ..................................................................................... 98

    2.4.3 Carbon prices................................................................................... 103

    2.4.4 Technology innovation, deployment and costs............................... 103

3. The ambition gap to 1.5 °C 107

    3.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 109

    3.2 Achieving net zero emissions by 2050......................................................... 110

    3.3 Moving from announced pledges to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.. 115

    3.4 Electricity sector.......................................................................................... 124

    3.5 End-use sectors ........................................................................................... 132

    3.5.1 Industry............................................................................................ 132

    3.5.2 Transport......................................................................................... 140

    3.5.3 Buildings .......................................................................................... 146

    3.6 Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations.......................................... 154

    3.7 Behavioural change ..................................................................................... 158

    3.7.1 Role of behavioural change and materials efficiency ...................... 158

    3.7.2 Behavioural changes in advanced economies and emerging

market and developing economies ................................................. 161

    3.8 Announced pledges and air pollution.......................................................... 163

4. Exploring multiple futures: demand and electricity 165

    4.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 167

    4.2 Implementation gap .................................................................................... 167

    4.2.1 CO2 emissions.................................................................................. 168

    4.2.2 Energy access................................................................................... 175

    4.3 Energy demand............................................................................................ 180

    4.3.1 Energy demand trends to 2030 ....................................................... 180

    4.3.2 Energy demand trends after 2030................................................... 184

    4.4 Transitions in final energy consumption ..................................................... 186

    4.4.1 Energy efficiency improvements..................................................... 187

    4.4.2 Electrification................................................................................... 191

    4.5 Electricity ..................................................................................................... 194

    4.5.1 Electricity demand........................................................................... 195

    4.5.2 Electricity supply.............................................................................. 198

    4.5.3 Electricity system flexibility ............................................................. 203

    4.5.4 Networks ......................................................................................... 207

5. Exploring multiple futures: fuels 211

    5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 213

    5.2 Liquid fuels .................................................................................................. 214

    5.2.1 Oil trends to 2030............................................................................ 215

    5.2.2 Oil trends after 2030 ........................................................................ 219

    5.2.3 Biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels ................................................. 223

    5.3 Gaseous fuels .............................................................................................. 226

    5.3.1 Natural gas trends to 2030 .............................................................. 227

    5.3.2 Natural gas trends after 2030.......................................................... 231

    5.3.3 Low-carbon hydrogen and biogas ................................................... 233

    5.4 Solid fuels .................................................................................................... 240

    5.4.1 Coal trends to 2030 ......................................................................... 241

    5.4.2 Coal trends after 2030..................................................................... 244

    5.4.3 Solid bioenergy ................................................................................ 245

6. Secure transitions 247

    6.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 249

    6.2 Energy security in increasingly integrated systems..................................... 250

    6.2.1 Electricity security............................................................................ 252

    6.2.2 New demands on fuel infrastructure............................................... 258

    6.2.3 Additional energy conversions........................................................ 263

    6.2.4 Building climate resilient infrastructure .......................................... 266

    6.3 International aspects of energy security ..................................................... 269

    6.3.1 Critical minerals............................................................................... 271

    6.3.2 Oil and gas investment .................................................................... 277

    6.3.3 New patterns of energy trade ......................................................... 282

Annexes 289

    Annex A. Tables for scenario projections....................................................................... 291

    Annex B. Design of the scenarios................................................................................... 327

    Annex C. Definitions...................................................................................................... 351

    Annex D. References ..................................................................................................... 369

    Annex E. Inputs to the World Energy Model.................................................................. 379

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