KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Acknowledgements ......................................................................i

List of abbreviations .............................iii

Glossary .....................................................................iv

Foreword ........................................................................ix

Preface ............................................................x

Key messages  ...........................................................................xiv

Chapter 1: Introduction — Transformation in resource consumption and production is possible and requires immediate and decisive action .............1
 Main findings ............................................................2
 1.1. Introduction .......................................................3
 1.2. Sustainable and equitable natural resource use and management are essential to meet human needs for all and safeguard the planet’s life-support systems ..........3
 1.3. Worrying trends and new challenges in resource consumption and production since 2019 .......4
 1.4. It is not enough to identify pathways for achieving sustainability global agendas. Concrete and immediate action at scale is required .........6
 1.5. Rather than despair, determination to change and innovate can lead to just transition pathways and new opportunities for long-term sustainability .....7
 1.6. Decoupling natural resource use and environmental impacts from human well-being is essential and necessary for the transition to a sustainable future ....7
 1.7. Decoupling will not happen spontaneously and will require systemic transformation ................8
 1.8. For solutions that go beyond incremental or isolated changes, the “provisioning systems” concept facilitates an integrated and systemic approach to decision-making .........11
 1.9. Actions for the sustainable use and management of natural resources must place justice and sufficiency at the core ............14
 1.10. 2024 Global Resources Outlook expands on earlier reports ..........................................................14
 1.11. Concluding remarks...........................................................................................................................15

Chapter 2: Drivers, pressures, and natural resource use trends ..................................................................17
 Main findings ..............................................................................................................................................18
 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................19
 2.2. What drives global resource use trends? ........................................................................................19
  2.2.1 Population growth .....................................................................................................................................................20
  2.2.2 Gross Domestic Product ..........................................................................................................................................21
  2.2.3 Per capita GDP ...........................................................................................................................................................22
  2.2.4 Urbanization ................................................................................................................................................................23
 2.3 Historical analysis of material resource use ...................................................................................24
  2.3.1 Global trends in material extraction .......................................................................................................................26
  2.3.2 Global trade in materials ..........................................................................................................................................29
  2.3.3 Domestic Material Consumption............................................................................................................................32
  2.3.4 Material Footprint ......................................................................................................................................................33
  2.3.5 Waste and emissions................................................................................................................................................35
  2.3.6 Resource productivity ...............................................................................................................................................36
  2.3.7 Drivers of material use ..............................................................................................................................................37
 2.4 Water use ...........................................................................................................................................39
 2.5 Land use ............................................................................................................................................40
  2.5.1 Global and regional land use trends ......................................................................................................................41
 2.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................43

Chapter 3: Given that resource use is driving the triple planetary crisis, sustainable resource management is urgently needed ...........45
 Main findings ..............................................................................................................................................46
 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................47
  3.1.1 Relevance ....................................................................................................................................................................47
  3.1.2 Content ........................................................................................................................................................................47
  3.1.3 Further information ...................................................................................................................................................51
 3.2 Growing impact of global resource-related impacts and missed targets .....................................51
  3.2.1 Resource management is the key to environmental policy ..............................................................................51
  3.2.2 Lack of global absolute decoupling - environmental impacts continue to increase ....................................53
  3.2.3 Targets for climate and biodiversity impacts have been dramatically missed .............................................53
  3.2.4 Provisioning systems of food, energy, mobility and built environment are main contributors to environmental impacts.............54
  3.2.5 Well-being increased but without absolute decoupling in any IHDI county groups .....................................55
 3.3 Environmental impacts are unevenly distributed ............................................................................56
  3.3.1 Environmental impact footprints differ greatly between income country groups ........................................56
  3.3.2 Regional variations in the environmental impacts of provisioning systems .................................................57
  3.3.3 Environmental impacts embodied in international trade ...................................................................................60
  3.3.4 Temporal trends of domestic impacts and trade differ among regions ........................................................62
  3.3.5 Affluence is the main global driver of environmental impacts .........................................................................63
  3.3.6 Well-being indicators can improve at little environmental cost ........................................................................64
 3.4 Supply-chain analysis .......................................................................................................................66
  3.4.1 Climate impacts are caused by many actors and sectors throughout the value chain ..............................66
  3.4.2 Biodiversity impacts mainly occur at the start of the value chain ...................................................................67
 3.5 In-depth regionalized assessment of resource-related environmental and health impacts (production perspective).....................68
  3.5.1 Health impact and climate change analysis relating to industrial-plant specific fine particulate matter (PM2.5) ..........70
  3.5.2 Impacts of land use (land use change and occupation) ....................................................................................72
 3.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................76

Chapter 4: Scenario outlook ...........................................................................................................................77
 Main findings ..............................................................................................................................................78
 4.1. Introduction: Two contrasting scenarios .........................................................................................80
  4.1.1. Assumptions and narrative for the Sustainability Transition scenario ..........................................................80
  4.1.2. Scenario analysis assesses decoupling potential..............................................................................................80
  4.1.3 Innovations .................................................................................................................................................................81
  4.1.4. Contents .....................................................................................................................................................................82
 4.2. High environmental damage and inequality under the Historical Trends scenario ......................82
  4.2.1. Historical Trends assumes economic growth consistent with institutional projections driving significant growth in resource use ........82
  4.2.2. No absolute decoupling projected under Historical Trends .............................................................................83
 4.3. Sustainability Transition increases well-being and income while decreasing pressures and environmental impacts ..........85
  4.3.1. Key elements of the Sustainability Transition scenario ....................................................................................85
  4.3.2. Decoupling outcomes ..............................................................................................................................................89
  4.3.3. Key results for resource efficiency ........................................................................................................................91
  4.3.4. Key results for climate and energy ........................................................................................................................96
  4.3.5. Key results for food and land .................................................................................................................................101
  4.3.6. Supporting reduced inequalities, sufficiency and a just transition .................................................................103
 4.4. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................106

Chapter 5: Call to action for sustainable resource use – Sustainable prosperity only possible with immediate transformative action ......107
 Main policy findings ............................................108
 5.1 Introduction: Crucial global commitment to a just transformation and sustainable resource use ..........109
 5.2 Some actions in the right direction. However, multiple barriers and lock-ins need to be overcome (as detailed in Chapter 1), and changes are not taking place at the speed and scale needed.....................111
 5.3 Immediate and decisive action can transform resource use for the benefit of humanity ...........111
 5.4 Critical actions towards sustainable resource use can achieve desired outcomes ....................112
  5.4.1. Institutionalizing resource governance and defining resource-use paths ....................................................116
  5.4.2. Directing finance towards sustainable resource use ........................................................................................119
  5.4.3. Making trade an engine of sustainable resource use ........................................................................................122
  5.4.4. Mainstreaming sustainable consumption options ............................................................................................126
  5.4.5. Creating circular, resource-efficient and low-impact solutions and business models ...............................129
  5.4.6. Achieving more effective resource-intensive provisioning systems ..............................................................133
 5.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................139
 
References.......................................................................................................................................................142

 Methodological Annexes ................................................................................................................................162