KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Foreword ...................................................................................................................................... vii 

Preface  ........................................................................................................................................ viii 

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................ x 

List of Acronyms .......................................................................................................................... xi 

1 The Importance of Solar Resource Information for Solar Power .................................... 1-1 

2 Overview of Solar Radiation Resource Concepts .......................................................... 2-1 
 2.1 Extraterrestrial Irradiance Spectrum .................................................................. 2-2 
 2.2 Solar Constant and Total Solar Irradiance ......................................................... 2-3 
 2.3 Sun-Earth Distance and Extraterrestrial Radiation ............................................ 2-5 
 2.4 Solar Radiation and the Earth’s Atmosphere ..................................................... 2-6 
 2.5 Solar Resource and Irradiance Components for Solar Energy Applications ..... 2-9 

3 Measuring Solar Radiation ............................................................................................. 3-1 
 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 3-3 
 3.2 Radiometer Types .............................................................................................. 3-3 
 3.3 Rear Plane-of-Array Irradiance and Surface Albedo Measurements ................ 3-31 
 3.4 Measurand and Instrument Selection ................................................................ 3-43 
 3.5 Measurement Station Design Considerations ................................................... 3-52 
 3.6 Station and Network Operations ........................................................................ 3-60 

4 Data Quality Assessment and Control ............................................................................ 4-1 
 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 4-1 
 4.2 Automated Tests of Instantaneous Irradiance Data .......................................... 4-3 
 4.3 Daily Visual Inspection of Irradiation Data ......................................................... 4-16 
 4.4 Long-Term Irradiation Data ................................................................................ 4-19 
 4.5 Methods for Other Types of Instruments ........................................................... 4-21 
 4.6 Data Quality Cycle ............................................................................................. 4-23 
 4.7 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 4-24 

5 Further Relevant Meteorological Parameters ................................................................. 5-1 
 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 5-2 
 5.2 Wind ................................................................................................................... 5-3 
 5.3 Ambient Air Temperature and Relative Humidity ............................................... 5-5 
 5.4 Atmospheric Pressure ........................................................................................ 5-6 
 5.5 Precipitation ....................................................................................................... 5-7 
 5.6 Aerosols and Water Vapor ................................................................................. 5-9 
 5.7 Spectral Irradiance ............................................................................................. 5-11 
 5.8 Ultraviolet Irradiance .......................................................................................... 5-15 
 5.9 Soiling ................................................................................................................ 5-17 
 5.10 Circumsolar Radiation ........................................................................................ 5-22 
 5.11 Beam Attenuation Between Heliostats and Receivers in Tower Power Plants . 5-23 
 5.12 Surface Albedo ................................................................................................... 5-25 
 5.13 Other Parameters Relevant for Agrivoltaics ...................................................... 5-26 

6 Solar Resource Variability .............................................................................................. 6-1 
 6.1 Introduction and Background ............................................................................. 6-1 
 6.2 Temporal Variability ........................................................................................... 6-2 
 6.3 Spatial Variability ................................................................................................ 6-15 
 6.4 Evaluation of the Variability of the Solar Resource ............................................ 6-15 
 6.5 Temporal Variability and Resolution .................................................................. 6-22 
 6.6 Variability of Solar Energy Production ............................................................... 6-23 

7 Modeling Solar Radiation: Current Practices .................................................................. 7-1 
 7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7-1 
 7.2 Radiative Transfer Models ................................................................................. 7-2 
 7.3 Other Irradiance Models for Solar Energy Applications ..................................... 7-6 
 7.4 Introduction to Satellite-Based Models .............................................................. 7-7 
 7.5 Numerical Weather Prediction-Based Solar Radiation Estimates ..................... 7-17 
 7.6 Site Adaptation: Merging Measured and Modeled Data .................................... 7-18 
 7.7 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 7-20 

8 Solar Resource Models and Data ................................................................................... 8-1 
 8.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 8-1 
 8.2 Solar Resource Data Characteristics ................................................................. 8-2 
 8.3 Solar Resource Data Long-Term and Typical  Meteorological Datasets ........... 8-3 
 8.4 Solar Resource Data Key Considerations ......................................................... 8-4 
 8.5 Solar Resource Data Resolution ........................................................................ 8-5 

9 Forecasting Solar Radiation and Photovoltaic Power .................................................... 9-1 
 9.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 9-3 
 9.2 Time-Series Forecasting Based on Measurements ........................................... 9-7 
 9.3 Irradiance Forecasting Based on Cloud Images ................................................ 9-11
 9.4 Numerical Weather Prediction ........................................................................... 9-25 
 9.5 Postprocessing and Model Blending With Statistical and Machine Learning Methods ........ 9-33 
 9.6 PV Power Forecasting ....................................................................................... 9-39 
 9.7 Probabilistic Solar Forecasts ............................................................................. 9-54 
 9.8 Summary and Recommendations for Irradiance Forecasting ........................... 9-60 

10 Principles and Practical Methods for Estimating Uncertainty and Evaluating Solar Irradiance Data .......... 10-1 
 10.1 Introductory Outline ............................................................................................ 10-2 
 10.2 Basic Uncertainty Concepts ............................................................................... 10-4 
 10.3 Estimating Measurement Uncertainty ................................................................ 10-12 
 10.4 Estimating the Uncertainty of Modeled/Predicted Datasets .............................. 10-21 
 10.5 Modeled Data Uncertainty Estimation Challenges ............................................ 10-26 
 10.6 Evaluation and Uncertainty of Irradiance and PV Power Forecasts .................. 10-28 
 10.7 Available Diagnostic Tools ................................................................................. 10-40 

11 Applying Solar Resource Data to Solar Energy Projects ............................................... 11-1 
 11.1 Introduction and Background ............................................................................. 11-4 
 11.2 Prefeasibility Stage ............................................................................................ 11-6 
 11.3 Feasibility Study Stage ...................................................................................... 11-11 
 11.4 Due Diligence and Acceptance Stage ............................................................... 11-17 
 11.5 Operation Stage ................................................................................................. 11-18 
 11.6 Yield Estimation Methodologies ......................................................................... 11-25 
 11.7 Power Output Variability .................................................................................... 11-31 
 11.8 Data Bankability ................................................................................................. 11-34 
 11.9 Applying Solar Resource Data to Other Types of Solar Energy Projects .......... 11-36 

12 Future Work .................................................................................................................... 12-1 
 12.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 12-1 
 12.2 Meteorological Data for Advanced, Integrated, and Upcoming Technologies .. 12-2 
 12.3 Effects of Climate Change on Radiation and Solar Energy Production ............. 12-3 
 12.4 Forecasting Solar Radiation and Solar Power, Before and Behind the Meter, Based on New Machine-Learning Techniques .... 12-