KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................11

Chapter 1. Sweden’s energy and energy policy landscape and carbon emission objectives ..........23
 1.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................23
 1.2. Current and historical policy framework ........................................................................................... 24
 1.3. Rising demand and capacity expansion needs ..................................................................................26
 1.4. Infrastructure constraints and market pressures .............................................................................27
 1.5. Research questions answered by this work .......................................................................................28
 References .......................................................................................................................................................30

Chapter 2. The Swedish electricity system and findings of other studies ........................................33
 2.1. The Swedish electricity system  ...........................................................................................................33
 2.2. Electricity pricing and market integration .........................................................................................36
 2.3. Review of prior studies on generation mix impacts  ........................................................................38
 References .......................................................................................................................................................43
 
Chapter 3. Modelling Sweden’s energy system ..................................................................................45
 3.1. The NEA system cost approach ............................................................................................................45
 3.2. The NEA POSY2 model ...........................................................................................................................46
 3.3. Modelling Sweden and other countries ...............................................................................................46
 3.4. Limitations ...............................................................................................................................................58
 3.5. Validating POSY2 on the realities of 2023 ...........................................................................................60
 References .......................................................................................................................................................62

Chapter 4. Contours of a net zero emissions electricity system in Sweden at Horizon 2050: Base Case 2050 and sensitivity scenarios .....63
 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................63
 4.A.1. A first overview of Base Case 2050 ...................................................................................................64
 4.A.2. Key modelling assumptions in establishing Base Case 2050 and the sensitivity scenarios...... 68
 4.A.3. Detailed results for Base Case 2050  .................................................................................................72

Chapter 4. Part B: 2050 Sensitivity scenarios .......................................................................................79
 4.B.1. Overnight costs of nuclear and onshore wind energy ...................................................................79
 4.B.2. Nuclear sensitivity scenarios ............................................................................................................83
 4.B.3. Renewable sensitivity scenarios .......................................................................................................89
 4.B.4. Two alternative demand scenarios by the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA) .................................94
 4.B.5. Trade and interconnection sensitivity scenarios ...........................................................................96
 4.B.6. Flexibility sensitivity scenarios .......................................................................................................101
 4.B.7. Positive CO2 emissions sensitivity scenario ..................................................................................106
 Conclusions of Chapter 4 ............................................................................................................................107

References .....................................................................................................................................................109

Chapter 5. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................111

Appendix ..............................................................................................................................................116