KETEP 세계에너지시장정보

1. Abstract (p. 3)

2. Acknowledgements, contributors and credits (p. 4)

3. Overview (p. 5)
   - Global coal demand reached a new record in 2025 (p. 5)
   - ...and the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East is set to drive it higher in 2026 (p. 5)
   - Coal's path in 2027 remains uncertain (p. 6)
   - Global coal production stayed at a record high in 2025 (p. 6)
   - ...but will likely contract this year (p. 6)
   - Global coal output is forecast to rebound slightly in 2027 (p. 7)
   - Coal trade contracted in 2025 after reaching an all-time high (p. 7)
   - ...but disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict could push coal trade higher in 2026 (p. 7)
   - Trade volumes are likely to contract in 2027 once gas-to-coal switching eases (p. 8)
   - The conflict in the Middle East has supported a recovery in coal prices (p. 8)

4. Demand (p. 9)
   - Slight growth of global coal demand in 2025 masked diverging regional trends (p. 9)
   - Unexpected shocks push global demand higher in 2026 (p. 10)
   - Global coal demand could decline in 2027 if Middle East tensions ease (p. 12)

5. Production (p. 15)
   - Global coal production stayed close to record levels in 2025, led by China and India (p. 15)
   - Output is expected to dip in 2026 amid abundant inventories (p. 16)
   - Coal output will rebound slightly in 2027, after the fall in 2026 (p. 17)

6. Trade (p. 19)
   - After a record 2024, global coal trade declined in 2025 as China reduced their imports (p. 19)
   - Trade forecasts revised up for 2026 as a result of the Middle East crisis (p. 20)
   - Global coal trade is set to resume its decline in 2027 driven by thermal coal (p. 23)

7. Prices (p. 24)
   - Coal prices have recovered from marginal-cost levels, but remain well below 2022 highs (p. 24)
   - International thermal coal prices recovered in the first half of 2026 after weakening through 2024 and 2025 (p. 25)
   - Coal prices rose moderately after the conflict in the Middle East broke out (p. 28)
   - Russian coal discounts increased with higher prices (p. 29)
   - Coal forward prices are more stable than oil and gas (p. 30)

8. Annex (p. 32)
   - Abbreviations and acronyms (p. 32)
   - Glossary (p. 32)